The Timer has been Updated…

Saturday, November 25, 2023. I am so busy… But I’m happy.

I did get to update my timing efforts this afternoon. The OEXpert 7 Timer had not been updated in a couple of weeks. But today I inputted the back data.

There’s much to report. First, everything hinges upon the direction of interest rates at this time. As bond prices and rates go, so goes stocks, precious metals and the US dollar. So, what can I see?

Looking at LQD, an ETF of investment grade corporate bonds, rates peaked on 10/19, 20 and 23. The fund price has been rising since, and interest rates have been falling. The same goes for the high-yield, or what used to be called the “junk bond” fund, HYG. Same date, rates peaked, bond prices started to rise. Further, the price of HYG has broken out of a long base of price consolidation that formed a wedge, which was also right at its down-trending 200-day moving average. The 20-day has pierced the 50-day, and the 50-day is about to turn up. So, what’s happening? Are rates actually reversing trend and going to keep declining???

Then there’s stocks.. The QQQ and OEX have taken a cue from the falling rates, and reversed course to the upside on 10/26+27. Not only that, but they’re putting in new 52-week highs!!!

Precious metals, silver and gold, along with their mining fund ETFs have bottomed 10/3,4+5 and again 11/13 for a higher low. The metals have been rising well, as have the mining funds.

Then there is the US Dollar. It peaked back on 10/3, and has trended downward, the rate of decline accelerating since 11/1. This has been behind the metals move.

Everything I’d previously reported as being up is now going down, and all I’d said had sold off and gone down before is now heading up!

Stocks have attained unto a new 52-week high, and are just beginning to cool a little bit, according to the technicals. Silver is a bit hotter than gold, which is a positive when looking to see if metals are finally going to breakout a make a new run unto all new high price territory. I’m looking to maybe play that trade with NUGT!

And, it is well worth noting, that everything that has run up has now put their technical indicators into quite overbought measures, and that which has declined is now at that place of measuring low-risk by their technical measures. Will everything reverse again? I’d put my money on some volatility, with higher risk readings getting wrung out, as the present moves consolidate and get digested for a bit, then I’d be looking for these new trends whether up or down to resume in each asset since they’ve reversed course within the past month or so.

My take would be, beginning with bond prices rising and interest rates and the dollar falling, making stocks and metals to go up, that the opinion is now that rate-raising on the part of the FED may likely be considered as over, and that rates are taking the hold and effect on the economy and prices in such a way as to say that… the belief is that the Fed has actually engineered a “soft-landing” for the economy, and that is it going to be realized in the first half of ’24… unless and until new data were to indicate otherwise. And I do say a soft landing because junk bonds would not be rising in price if the belief were more in line with the idea that a harder, more recessionary landing looked to be in the cards, as bankruptcies within the high-yield issuers would surely result.

If this opinion is the correct one… Look for bonds, stocks, and even the metals to all continue to do well, as the present economic ‘strength’ appears to hold, and inflation were to further moderate… a Goldilocks dream scenario would seem to be the outlook… something not at all shared by Warren Buffet and some others who see a much harder economic outcome out ahead of us. We will all learn what will happen soon enough. Look for some volatility for bit, but expect prices to resume their upward trend, if the consensus opinion holds out. Only new data that says something other than the recent data releases have said will change anything at this point.

Harold

It’s Like Christmas in October!

Tuesday, November 7, 2023. Schwab bought TD Ameritrade and my accounts got all switched over okay, but it did hold the monthly statements up just a bit. But they are here now, and I get to learn who paid us how much, and if anyone raised us!

So, who paid us in October? I’ve got 12 symbols with money beside them. They are: AFG, BST, BSTZ, IIPR, LRCX, Our Money Fund, and short-term bond funds, MO, O, OZK, UTG, and VICI.

I see more money received for our shares of AFG, LRCX, MO, O, OZK, and VICI.

Looking in our charts, I see that ABBV has raised to us in October, from $5.92 to $6.20 a share. That $.28 a share increase is good for 4.73%. AFG announced and raised us from $2.52 to $2.84 a share. That’s a $.32 a share increase and good for a 12.7% raise… on top of the glorious special dividend payouts over the year! It’s got to be time to remove BSTZ and just move on. Price has not moved well, and the dividend has been cut again. Declare that one a mistake… and move on! The payout was cut from $1.94 to $1.23. That’s a $.71 a share shave. We’re all through. It’s not 3% of our holdings, but it won’t encumber us any longer. We got a bump in MAIN. It had been $2.76 last year, but is now at $2.88, for $.12 and 4.35%. Our current yield on our purchase price now stands at 8.09%! That’s Eight Percent, Baby!!! NEP has raised us as well. Now $3.38 from $3.21 a year ago. It’s a $.17 a share increase for 5.3%, and our yield on purchase price is 4.87%. O has raised to $3.07 a share from $3.06 a year ago… real estate is in a struggle in the current interest rate and inflation environment, but never count it out. And we have a 5.34% yield on our purchase price. Our portfolio yield is 4.11%.

The big deal is how much our portfolio dividend income grew since I took so much of our cash and bought shares of short-term bond funds, IBTD, IBTE, and IBTF. The money fund was a fraction of a % a few months ago, and I bought these funds paying 4 and 5%. The bump in income from our cash was great.

Income from our portfolio is up 149% from October of last year, 134.80% from January, and 6.56% since April six months ago, which still reflects a double-digit rate of annual income growth when annualized!

It’s looking good. I’ll make a change out of BSTZ.

Harold

Back Home!

Tuesday, November 7, 2023. I’ve been away. I get to Asia from time to time, and I’m largely off the grid when I do. But I’m back home now, and I’ve updated everything.

First off, the last post from a month ago was rather prescient. I’m looking at GLD in my timing effort right now and I am seeing that what I was looking at and last wrote about 1 month back was spot-on… Gold reversed right from the 10/6 turn I saw last post… to have bought in, either for investment purposes, or as a trade, would have worked out great! Gold is now pausing, and it’s worth a watch to see if it will be a “pause that refreshes,” that it might finally crack the $2,000 an oz overhead resistance and run, or if it will fall far back once again.

Next, is my stock market timing. I was clearly marking a low and a turn in early October, but I was also calling for a lot of caution, because the attempted upturn had so little strength and momentum to it… I didn’t like it one bit. That also turned out to be a wise call and some sage caution, as it rolled over mid-month, just as I left and stopped watching, and then took another dive to lower lows! Lows which my indicators said, as I have just updated them, put in another fine low-risk market entry signal. For instance…

In the OEXpert 7, F1 indicator put in a triple-low having an appearance of a head and shoulders bottom! We’ll see how that plays, as I don’t recall anything like in about forever. F2 put in 3 successive lows, each lower than the other, but I understand it well enough to know that it can only trace out the actual market pattern, and not set-up technical pictures like F1 can. F3 did a similar thing as F1 and the indicator made 3 bottoms, but also formed a head and shoulders bottoming pattern. F4… ditto! Same thing! F5 has also created a pattern where it signaled low risk at under 40 on its scale 2 times, BUT this recent low 10/27 did NOT! I’m going somewhere with this. Finally, I have F6 forming a similar pattern of 3 low-risk entry signals under 10 on its scale, but the 3 upturns have also formed a head and shoulders bottom picture.

This is so rare, I cannot say with a certainty what it might be saying, but the technical texts would tell you that a very significant bottom has been being put in for stocks all this Fall so far, and that the next likely direction for stocks, which had been downtrending since peaking the end of July, will be a nice new rally uptrend to extend for the next several months. I believe the same. I think stocks are likely to pause for a bit, after this recent quick run, and resume this newly birthed uptrend. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it… until of course, I am required to reverse my opinion on a dime, as the market utterly humiliates me and proves me wrong!

There have been 6 straight up days, the 200-day moving average has been pierced, now it is up to the market to show a new resilience and to put the downtrending past of August thru October behind it. I’m thinking it will.

Next, the October portfolio dividend income update!

Harold F Crowell

It’s Trying!

Friday, October 6, 2023. Before the open. It is trying to turn right in here… Bonds are trying to reverse direction and go up… Interest rates are trying to reverse and go down… Precious metals are trying to reverse and head back up… stocks look to be trying to do the same.

All the technicals I follow, and I have at least 10, 12, maybe it’s 13… I think I’ve called them a “Baker’s Dozen” have all become extended into either their low or high risk extremes of measure, but nothing has LAUNCHED YET!

And nothing will… all markets are holding their breath for the next buncha numbers to come out this morning… Whatever they are, the markets are looking to see what direction INTEREST RATES will go in response to the next numbers.

All the markets will move in relation to the ever adjusting interest rate scenario.

This much can be said right now… The pre-openers trading right now are saying that there is a cautious optimism that these extremes in sentiment that has been reached in all these markets and asset classes are WANTING to go the other way. But the gains in the stock futures and precious metals before our open are indicative of a very CAUTIOUS sentiment and opinion, as all the gains are very small.

Today may be a very important day! Let’s watch for it. Traders the world over certainly are. 😉

Harold

Are We There Yet? Are We There Yet?

Thursday, October 5, 2023. I’ll be brief. I track bonds and interest rates, precious metals and stocks, and by every technical measure, they are all either at a high or a low-risk extreme of measure, and all are losing momentum in their trends… all might reverse direction… or, if they won’t, fear will give way to panic, and a crash could ensue. It all depends upon the movement in bonds and the resulting interest rates they generate. That said, I noted this from a professional trader…

“A strong close in tech stocks and bonds. 

I waited all day – and as you can tell from the time of this post  most of the night as well – to see how futures traded to get a sense of the price action.

As cheesy as the saying is – money never does sleep. I learned that the hard way.

I’m patiently waiting to see if we get a slight new high and one more drop around the jobs numbers/inflation to buy weakness.

And I’ll buy more if we do.

I’ve received a few concerned emails about what is happening and that is OK.

When things don’t go exactly as planned it is easy to be frustrated. And in trading things don’t always go as planned.

But the key is to always have a plan.

When I get a bunch of emotional emails (good or bad) it is usually a sign. It is either fear or greed.

I’ll have more on this next week, but understand that the market thrives on your emotions.  

The market begs for extremes…

When you feel like things can’t get much better – the market takes a turn for the worse.

When you feel like things can’t get much worse – the market makes a run for the heavens. 

You have to be strong in your strategy, your process, and have emotional fortitude.

Easier said than done, but trust me when I say this current market environment is when the best money is made.

And if I’m wrong – I’ll manage our risk to make sure we don’t lose too much.

If you think the price action pushes you to where you can’t take it anymore – you are not alone. That is what the market does – no matter the time frame or market…

The price extremes on a chart you see are of pain and exuberance.

It is designed to make you frustrated. 

But hang tough… We got this.”

I don’t use his name… his stuff is almost certainly copyrighted and I don’t want any trouble. I just shared him because he sees and is saying the very same thing. We are at a time of great opportunity. It is here. What will you do?

What I did was to buy a lot of short-term bonds with a lot of my cash, because the yield was good, my principal safe, and there will be some gains to be had if recession ever results, and rates plunge… meaning the bonds got chased, and their prices rose sharply.

Harold

Awesome September Income!!!

Tuesday, October 3, 2023. I am blown away!!! Really! I did not for a second think that September’s income was going to be what it was. I LOVE it!!!

First, we were paid by 20 of our holdings… I don’t count IBTD, IBTE, and IBTF separately. I place all the income they pay into the money fund category, and will do the same with our new position in the 1-3 month T-Bill fund, BIL. So, those others that paid out were: ARES, AVGO, BIP, BIPC, BLK, BST, BSTZ, BTG, ELV, FLO, FXO, HD, MAIN, Money Fund, MSFT, O, SCHD, SII, UNH, and UTG.

Next, I look to see who has raised us in this past month, and I see 3 new increases come our way. The first from FXO. It is now paying $1.28 a share, up from $.95 a share 12 months ago. That’s good for a 34.74% dividend increase ‘pay raise’! And it’s worth getting excited about!!! Microsoft has raised us from $2.72 a share to an even $3.00. So that a $.28 a share increase for 10.29% raise. Nice! I see that Vici Properties, VICI, has increased theirs to us from $1.56 to $1.66 a share. That’s just $.10, and it’s good for 6.41%, and I’ll not pan that… That’s okay!

What’s really lit the fire under our income in recent months is just all that new cash pouring in since creating the bond ladder of this, year, next year’s, and those to expire at the end of ’25, IBTD, E, and F. So, all the income of September was 47.74% greater than June, 3 months back; 66.17% higher than March, 6 months ago; a whoppin’ 109.49% more than December, 9 months ago; and finally, a total of 126.84% over that of September last year!!! I am floored!

This morning, I just bought a goodly amount of the 1-3 month T-Bill fund, BIL, and that income will very soon commence, and so, LOOK OUT OCTOBER! The next report may well be MORE exciting!

I have to say though, I was away much of last October, and was NOT here to catch the mid-month tradable low. When I put the data in to catch up after I had returned, the timer had nailed it. I’m going to be leaving again in this month… and I won’t be able to follow our markets while I’m away then either!

O, well… That’s why I’m a portfolio dividend income investor, and NO trader!!!

Harold

This Is Huge!!!

Tuesday, October 3, 2023. Three things. First, our September monthly account statements are ready online… and second, I’ve got a hot INCOME tip for investors like myself. Third, I must report my timing results!

I got a report which spoke of a fine 1-3 month treasury fund paying a great rate, and being an awesome place to park what is presently your Money Fund sitting cash. You know what you’re getting in your money fund, right? Not much! This 2-3 month treasury fund has the symbol, BIL. Check it out. The annual payout is $3.99 a share for a 4.36% yield. (The report spoke of how the real yield works out to 5.3%… probably reinvested.) I plunked a bunch of our uninvested cash into it this morning at $91.45 and 46 a share. That said…

How long will I leave any of it there? I now track interest rates by means of a couple of bond funds, HYG and QLD, to get both a corporate high-yield look, and a gov’t bond watch… I track both the risky and the safe ends of the bond market that way. Next, I now also track the US Dollar against a basket of other currencies through DXY… along with my usual stocks with QQQ and OEX, precious metals with GLD, and the miners fund, GDX. What a view! What a perspective these give me now!!!

First, Interest Rates have been moving UP very quickly here just lately… well since mid-July, and has been very rapidly accelerating since FRIDAY! The US Dollar has been rapidly strengthening since mid-July as well. So, stocks have been struggling, and precious metals have been taking a real beating! All that said…

The technical measures for all these different asset classes are all now at their own either high, or low, extremes… all of them. Their trends have been rather steady enough to take their oscillating technical indicators and to run them out to measures of high risk, or low. As always happens with these, at some point they reverse direction… and that’s what we’re looking for now. And, I would say that at this point in time right now… we should be looking for that reversal, and a new run in the other direction for everything… because the present trajectory of this market, at this time now is… If it does not… panic is going to set in, and a crash could ensue. That’s what is potentially setting up right now!

IF that should happen, Katie bar the door! I’ll issue a Back Up The Truck order and shout BUY, BUY, BUY!!!

I’m watching… I just bought a lot of T-Bills in a fund, BIL, and they will get chased, if money floods out of the other markets!

I’ll report September Portfolio Dividend Income in another post… I’ve got to run.

Harold

Looking For The Turn In Here…

Tuesday, September 26, 2023. I could never see the last low-risk market-entry signal calling to me. It didn’t ‘feel’ good, and I watched for a turn that had any conviction to it, that I might join in… It never presented itself.

So the market’s been falling back, and I’ve been tracking it. I have a Baker’s Dozen of some technical means of measuring risk, and a goodly number of them are now falling into place for me. Let me review them here now…

In the stock analyzer program that I never name… It’s looking promising. It generates a ratio of those it calls buys in relation those it says are sells… and that ratio has fallen decidedly into that zone where it says risk is low. This program also generates its own rather fast means of measuring relative strength that differs from the standard RSI measure, and that has fallen into that zone where it says risk is low. Standard RSI is at 20.2, a very low measure for it! And finally, within the program it takes its own measures, creates an average of them and smoothes it a touch with a 3-day moving average of itself, and even that has also fallen below that line where it says risk is low. So by the stock program, all its measures have gotten there.

Then, also within that program, the measure of relative strength it gives to the QQQ, OEX and GLD will rank them by that measure in a watchlist I maintain. Whenever the markets are strong, QQQ is always moving higher, harder and faster than the OEX, which will be doing better than GLD. But, on those more rare occasions when a goodly decline is taking place, and that order reverses in that list, as I watch them… GLD will be falling easier in relation to the OEX, which is also not being hurt as badly as QQQ… and that is what I am seeing in that program now… So it’s already all there to say… maybe soon now!

However, within the OEXpert 7 Stock Market Timing Program with its own 7 indications that I watch… it’s not all there just yet!

I have to say that the OEX is now under both of the 2 lower trading bands and that is a good indication. The F1 indicator itself is at 11, and just needs to get a bit lower to tag 10, and it usually gets under 10 before the reversal. Ever first, and ever early F2 is there already, which means so little in all actuality. F3, being at 18, could signal in another couple of days. We’ll just say that F4 is back to where it last signaled a month ago, and is there. F5 doesn’t much like choppy markets, signaled a month ago, is headed back down, but isn’t likely to do so again in this week, I would think. Finally, F6, which I rely upon heavily, and especially when it and F1 coincide, is at 5, and that’s just fine.

In closing… If I rely on all my every indicator is telling me, I would say that we should be looking for the turn right here in this week… But I have to tell you that I started tracking the USD in the program, and the US Dollar’s strong uptrend is just what has been upsetting the apple cart… and that has only been indicative of the still rising interest rates.

Rates need to reverse. The dollar would need to fall. Gold would commence to rise, as would bonds… and stocks would join in and go UP. None of that is happening right now, but I see all the conditions in a strictly technical sense to be in place for rates to fall as bonds rise, and the dollar declines, and gold rises… so will stocks.

Will that be in this week? It has not begun yet, but as technical measures of everything gets stretched to their extremes, either up or down, as all these things are… That reversal will take place. When?

Watch for it… as it could be immanent! Have cash ready. Make a shopping list.

Harold

When You’re Hot…

Thursday, September 21, 2023. You’re hot! I don’t write often. Investors don’t need to do much. I pity the frustrated traders…

You can look back and see when I called the last and recent low-risk market entry signal. Then, I just watched…

The market could not get out of its own way and lift-off. I watched, and I said… This isn’t right. This isn’t looking healthy. And so, I didn’t commit. I didn’t engage in a bunch of buying. I didn’t add shares. I didn’t add any new positions.

NOW… while it is falling back, I am watching it, and updating the timer. The indicators are reversing, and they are showing that risk is falling away once again… and the issue will now be…

Will I catch the NEXT low-risk market entry opportunity? Will the market continue to head south long enough and far enough to generate a whole new signal in the system and/or in the stock analyzer?

I see one good clue already. The analyzer generates a very quick momentum indicator, and ranks stuff by that number it generates, if I want to rank by it. And, I do.

I learned years ago that a healthy bull market will show the QQQ to be running harder and stronger than the OEX… and the OEX will, in turn, run harder and stronger than the gold miners in GDX.

But, whenever the markets head south for a spell, that order will reverse, with GDX running better than the OEX, which will be doing better than QQQ. That is what I am looking at right now, so that I see that much risk has left the market already.

In the stock program, and looking at its own market timing function… It is beginning to generate its own low-risk entry signal.

After today, and perhaps Friday, too, I will re-evaluate everything, and arrive at a conclusion. I think we might be beginning the set-up for another one of those great last quarter rally scenarios… once everyone is totally bummed, thrown in the towel, sold out of their trading positions, and concerned or crying for all the loss they have incurred. Lemme see what I can come up with over the weekend…

Harold

Amazing August Income!

Wednesday, September 6, 2023.

The August monthly brokerage statements are available online, and did they ever hold good news!

We were paid by 11 of our holdings… 14 if you count the three treasury funds I wrote of previously, creating a little bond ladder with IBTD, IBTE and IBTF. I added the income from those with the Money Fund earnings.

So, the 11 companies that paid us were: ABBV, BMY, BST, BSTZ, COR (Previously ABC), CVS, MAIN, Money Fund, NEP, O, and UTG.

Did anyone give us a raise in August? LRCX has raised its dividend to us from $6.90 a share to now $8.00 a share for a 15.94% “pay raise.” That’s really nice! MAIN raised us from a dividend of $2.64 twelve months ago to a new rate of $2.82 a share. That’s a $.22 a share increase good for an 8.33% increase. Decent! MO has raised for us in August from $3.76 a share to what we now receive is $3.92 a share. That’s a 4.26% increase, but a yield on our purchase price of 9.73%. Yes, almost 10% from a common stock!!!

So, what about our overall portfolio dividend income and its growth? Well, our positions in the 3 treasury funds I mentioned above, pay out well above the typical money fund rate… by a considerable amount. Put ‘excess cash’ in these funds if you’re willing to park some.

Our total August income has blown us away!!! Since adding the 3 treasury funds from out of cash… August was, get this now, 38.51% above May, 50.85% over February, 98.57% greater than November, and an incredible 141.66% larger than August of ’22! This will continue to look great until next June, if I do nothing, but at some point it will be necessary to add shares or positions if truly fine and sustainable growth is going to take place.

I did not add any shares or positions when I most recently marked a market low for the simple reason that I just did not see what I would consider to be a rally to have commenced with any true market health or strength behind it, so I just turned away and ignored it.

Interest rates have been rising. The US Dollar has been strengthening. Gold and stocks have begun to feel the pain of it. So, no worries, I’ll just wait. Perhaps a great Fall buying opportunity will present itself. For now, I’m just basking in the awesome August results!

Harold