Headed in the Right Direction…

Thursday, February 25, after the close. Well, I said we’d need more downside to move the indicators into place… I’m so glad it’s listening to me! How much more?

I’ve updated, and here is what I’ve got… The OEXpert 7 says this: Price is not yet at its two lower trading bands. I’d previously said that it would need to get around 1700 on the OEX… another 2% or so more. F1 is at 22 and its lower band… That sort-of signals… Get to 10, and it’s a GO. F2 has signaled… That doesn’t matter. F3 is at 60… 10 is the signal. It doesn’t always get there, so I’ll watch it, but not worry. F4 looks to be at about -10, and it needs some yet. F5 is at 68… I’m wanting 40 to believe. Finally, F6 is at 52, we’re going to need at least 19 to signal. 10 is much preferred, and a 0 kills it!

So, this isn’t difficult the Xpert says… No way. Not yet. Let’s see what another week or two might do for us. No need to start getting antsy. Keep your powder dry.

In the mean time, I’ve scaled into what I think might be our last purchase in the crypto space… We have BTC and ETH. Our BTC is at an average cost of $17422, and our ETH comes in at an average of almost $625. The present gain is 167%. I’m watching precious metals, too. I need to study it just a bit more, but they look to be basing now, in preparation for a possible new advance? IDK. We’ll see. Haven’t gotten to that yet.

Harold

Looking For a Low-Risk Market Entry Opportunity

Wednesday, February 24. Some were wondering, with the recent pull back just how close might we be to a low-risk market entry opportunity? I promised to update the timer and get back to them.

The OEXpert 7 Stock Market Timer has a phenomenal record of locating market bottoms. Is it about to register the next one?

I’ve added the data, and the price of the OEX has a ways to go before it would be in that area of its two lower trading bands in the program, where risk might said to be low… The OEX would need to slip back to around 1700 before that would happen. It’s in the 1780’s as I type. The F1 indicator has been working its way down, and is now at 31 or 32, on its way to a signal at 20 or lower… 10 is usually much better. It needs some time. F2, always first and always early. doesn’t matter. It’s about to signal, but I have long since learned to ignore it as the Chicken Little signal! F3 is also working off from a recent high of over 80, but is only down to 69. It would require a good bit of time to get down to 10 and a signal. F4… pretty much the same. It needs time. F5, like the others, has turned down… was just over 100, is about 72, but needs to reach down to 40 to be meaningful. It’ll require more time. A look at reliable F6 tells a similar tale. It rolled over from near 90; is now down to 67, but needs to get all the way down to at least 19… 10 would be nicer, and I love it when it tags 0.

So, there you have it, folks. Risk has come off some in recent days, but nowhere near enough to satisfy the Xpert. This is all very fine by me. I’m in absolutely NO hurry whatsoever. I’d say that this is going to require at least a couple of more weeks of price action other than rally. We’ve seen that of late, but not near enough to wring the risk out that the timing indicators have registered since the end of last October… when it last said, risk is low, you can be a buyer!

Keep me honest, and ask me to get back to this from time to time. I want to call it out when the timer sees it!

Harold

Portfolio Dividend Income Growth: How Sweet It Is!!!

Monday, February 15. I did as I had last written. I sold a few issues, and added shares of a couple or three I last mentioned that I did not already have. I was asked to list what I’m holding, and I’d be pleased to. As always, do some homework to decide which, if any, might suit your purposes. But, I must explain, some have been held longer than others, and when I tell you of my yield, you won’t come up with the same, because many prices have appreciated, lowering their current yield from when I bought ours.

Here’s the list in alphabetical order: ABBV, ABC, AFG, ANTM, APO, AVGO, BIP, BIPC, BLK, BMY, BST, BSTZ, BTG, CCI, CCOI, COR, CVS, DLR, ES, EVA, FLO, FXO, HASI, HD, IIPR, INVH, KRE, LEN, LNT, LRCX, MAA, MAIN, MJ, MO, MSFT, NEP, NHI, NLY, NSA, NXST, O, SCHD, SCHV, SII, SRE, UNH, UTG, WEC and XEL. Our current yield, and rapidly growing too, is now at 3.79%… in this near ZERO percent world.

If we did nothing else, the dividend growth rate being right around 12% annually, will result in that income doubling in 6 years. Our 3.79% could possibly be yielding to us some 7.5% in 6 years, friends!!!

Questions or comments are welcome!

Harold

30 Best Long-Term Buys-To-Hold?

Saturday, January 30, 2021. Hey, I like charting. I took a couple of hours to look at some 1,800 charts. Here’s what I did. I sorted my entire database by dividend yield, highest at the top. I then charted mere LINES for some 15 1/2 years of price data, if there was that much, and for historical dividend payout. I then just began to click down through these charts, looking for the smoothest upwardly trending issues, that pretty much demonstrated at least a triple in price and in dividend over that period of time.

From out of those 1,800 charts, I saw what I thought were some 30 really good ideas, some of which were totally awesome! (that’s just 1.67% of all the stocks I looked at) Now, I already own nearly every one of those 30… There are a few I don’t have. But, I’m likely to sell something I no longer care so much for, that I might add at least 2, if not 3 or all 4 of these others. Why sell anything? I don’t want any MORE stocks than I now have, which is right around 50. I’m not going to add another idea, without first deciding what I would not mind in the least kicking out, in order to put something I think is better in its place. A gardener will do this very same kind of thing in their garden beds.

So, here’s what I found, and almost certainly also own. Do your own homework, and determine how any might work for you. I’ve personally got 36 years of market experience, and was a broker for 17 of those. And, I’ll just tell you right now… what I am doing here, NO broker would EVER do for their clients. NEVER!

You do this, and you’ll beat whatever anyone’s broker would tell you, because they can’t even consider putting their clients into such issues as they might want to buy them ONCE, and hold them FOREVER. Brokers must earn a commission for each transaction… and, if you’ve never been told this before, they also have, and MUST, meet quotas… which means in order to keep their jobs, they must SELL. Enough of that… You’re already doing the best right thing by being right here. Ready?

Look into, and give serious consideration to the following, which I am listing, from the highest yield, to the lowest, of those I have selected. (Not all meet the criteria I stated above, so I willingly made exceptions for some… as always, its entirely your call.) UTG, EVA, ABBV, APO, a really good idea is O, BST, BSTZ, NSA, BIP, COR, SII for special reasons all its own, FLO, SRE, CCI, LNT, BTG a high-yielding gold miner, LMT, AVGO, BMY, SCHD, DLR, MAA, CMS, SCHV, WEC, AMGN, BIPC, NEP, CVS a genuine turn-around is taking place here, XEL, IIPR and XLP. Right here are some 32 tremendous ideas! You may not like all of them, but you’ll find little reason to pan any of them. Then, there’s this… by even adding some of those ‘others’ you are not as fond of, whatever else they are doing in your portfolio, whether price or dividend wise or maybe both… being only a small fraction of the whole, like no more than 2 or maybe 3% at most, will not much alter the ‘picture’ that is created if you are able to put all in one watchlist and chart the price and dividend as an average of all, as if they were one security or like a mutual fund.

I just charted all the holdings in my wife’s safe-dividend growers account with 10 years of data, and sure enough, the lines are about as smooth as they can be, comprised as they are of all her issues in the account… and, both the price and the dividend payout better than triple in the past 10 years. The average dividend per share was $.89 ten years ago, and is $2.95 today, better than a triple. The price line average for all her stocks was $36.33 ten years back and is $119.97 today, better than a triple. Is that good? How can you know? What has the average of all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 done the past 10 years?

But, what do we see? The average of the issues in the 500, just before this recent inclusion of TSLA and others, which skews the new numbers, rose in price value from $58.46 to $146.03… 3 times $58.46 would be greater than $175. It had not tripled. The average dividend payout 10 years ago was $.83 a share, but is now $1.74 a share, well below a triple, which would be almost $2.50. That’s to not even mention the serious dividend payout cuts and dips during the harder times when a goodly number of companies froze, cut or eliminated their dividend… that would be like getting laid-off in the worst of times… or, more like saying you can stay-on, but you will have to take a pay-cut!

As an added bonus… you want me to check one out, or to justify my reason behind any of these… or, anything else, write me and ask. I’m retired and simply wanting to give it all away for the benefit and blessing of others. It works, just as I explained in my previous post, and will again, when the January statements come in just a few days.

Harold

What Did January Bring?

Friday, January 29, after the close. Our average dividend income per share for January rose from $2.90 to $2.95. I’ll note who raised or lowered for us in a bit, but that is a 1.72% one month income increase. This time, one year ago, our average dividend income for these shares we presently hold was $2.63, so that the entire annual increase would be $.32 a share, for a 12.17% dividend growth “pay raise” for all of these past 12 months. That’s what THIS kind of investing is all about! Safe-dividend growth, and an ever-growing stream of portfolio dividend income.

And, totally FWIW, the average price per share, one year ago, the end of January of ’20, was $104.51. With the close of January ’21, that average price for the same shares is $119.98. That translates into a 14.79% price appreciation… add the 3+% of dividends, and value is a goodly 18% greater than one year ago.

Now, for some monthly dividend income specifics… Who raised (or lowered) our dividend in January? Through the list, I find Blackrock, BLK, raised their dividend to us from $14.52 a share to $16.52. This $2.00 a share increase is a 13.77% raise. Gotta love that! Next, Alliant Energy, LNT, an electric utility, gave us an increase from $1.52 to $1.61 a share. This $.09 raise equals a 5.92% increase, for a 2.90% yield on our investment in it. Since we show a loss in our purchase, you could acquire some now for a 3.31% yield! Moving on… We received another increase from NextEra Energy, a clean energy company, symbol NEP. The dividend was increased from $2.26 to $2.34 a share. This $.08 raise is a 3.54% increase to us, but the fourth in the past year! One year ago the dividend was $1.97, so the annual increase was 18.78%! Finally, Wisconsin Energy, WEC, another electric utility. It raised us from $2.53 to $2.71 a share. That $.18 a share raise resulted in an increase to us of 7.11%. These 4 raises resulted in the 1.72% monthly increase in income to us.

We hold some 50 such ideas as these, and I’ll take some time to run my search, and bring the best I am able to currently find to your attention. We may be in the early stage of a market correction, so, I see no need at this present time to expend any great deal of capital making purchases, as I am of a current belief that better prices may be ahead… Then, on the other hand, for anyone who is simply wanting to commence to engage in a life-long, buy-to-hold strategy of acquiring safe-dividend growing stocks… in all reality, it makes little to NO difference when you buy. Really, it doesn’t.

We’ll receive our monthly statement for January soon. I’ll update everyone on the progress we are making, real-world, in our effort to grow our portfolio dividend income.

May you have a wonderful weekend, Harold

Topping is a PROCESS!

Wednesday, January 27, 2021. A professional trader was relating basic principles recently, when he said something that smacked me upside the head. You’ve had that experience before…

He said that market tops are a PROCESS, but that market bottoms tend to be an EVENT!

For more than 25 years I have been able to identify what I have come to call “Low-Risk Market Entry Opportunities”. If you’ve read me for any time at all, you know I write of these. I even track the market with about 12 favorite technical indicators, and write of how I see such an opportunity coming up within a week or so, and then I’ll state when it is immanent… and, on many occasions over the years, I have even accurately called a low to the very day!

The last two such calls were in the third week of last September, and again at the very end of October. We’ve not had one since, and market risk has gotten to what I would call rather extraordinarily high. For that reason, I have written little, and done nothing!

Now, here, we may be beginning to enter into a market correction… It’s off a good bit today, and may continue to do so for awhile… we can always hope.

And, that’s another thing! Being a long-term, buy-to-hold investor… I perversely look forward to market declines, and low-risk entry opportunities, so that I might put more cash to work in more shares of safe-dividend growers.

So, here’s what I will be doing… I will be updating my data within my timer, and looking at my other favorite indicators. I will write of them soon. It’s been weeks since I ran through a search for safe-dividend growers by means of my new search method, which I absolutely LOVE, and have built our portfolio around. We have safe-dividend growing stocks, cash, real estate, cryptos, and one particular exclusive commodity investment right now… nearly all of which have been “firing on all 8 cylinders,” as the expression goes. So, the wife and I, both now in retirement, find ourselves in a very good place, at this time.

More later, as I am able!

Harold

Got It Backwards…

Thursday, January 14, 2021. My last post, dated the 5th, I got it backwards. I had thought that the timer was suggesting a short and small sell-off to reset most of the indicators, for the next leg up. It did the opposite. The market reversed and commenced to rise again right out of the 4th, 5th and 6th “lows.” That was not what I was expecting, or wrote of last, at all.

Now, after updating the OEXpert 7, Price of the OEX is still running well above its upper trading band, indicative of a strong rally. F1 reversed and is climbing back up, with room before risk measures get quite high again. F2 reversed and has begun to rise again, and also could go considerably higher. F3 WAS very high, reversed, and is headed up again, from a high reading. F4 has continued to run dead, flat sideways, as I had last written. F5, like F1, F2 and F3 has reversed and is climbing again… and like those others, does still have good room to run, if it’s going to. Finally, F6 has done as those others… Only difference is that it does NOT have any great deal of room to run before it would mark a new high. Hmmmmm.

So, there you have it! Risk is present. It has been, because the last low-risk entry I noted and posted was the very end of October. The next one will not likely be for awhile, but IF the Xpert is still on its game, it’ll tell me when, and I’ll post it here!

Harold

Pure Conjecture on My Part…

Tuesday, January 5, 2021. This is entirely based on my LONG experience with the OEXpert 7 Stock Market Timing program I bought new in ’92.

I’m watching an anomoly unfold in the indicators within the Xpert. I see the same in the timing function within my stock analyzer, too. It goes like this:

The market has been rising. It has been making new highs. It only just took something of a hit the first day of the year… and, today, the second trading day in ’21, it’s looking to rebound some from yesterday… so, NO big deal, right???

Well, here’s what I think I see… in the Xpert, Price of the OEX has been running considerably above its own uptrending upper trading band within the program. It’s been a strong rally, and it commenced right out of the October low-risk market entry call I made the very end of October, and start of November. Even with yesterday’s close… price remains above that upper band. BUT, since sometime back before mid-December, the F1 indicator has been working its way down, and is already a bit more than HALF-way toward its move to a LOW-risk market entry signal! What of these others…

F2 has likewise been working off its excess risk signal, and is also at least half-way toward giving off its own low-risk signal! F3 is at 80. It is NOT saying anything like F1 and F2. It does tend to do its own thing, and more slowly, too. It does NOT have to participate in what I think I may be seeing. F4 is also NOT going along, but it is going dead-flat sideways at a reading that is on the higher, rather than the lower side of risk. But, with some more falling action in price, I could see it joining the F1 and F2 chorus. Now, F5 is ALSO looking more like F1 and F2! It is also working its way down toward its own low-risk signal. That signal is at 40. The indicator topped at 98 several weeks back, and has already worked its way down to 68, on its way to 40… so, it, too, has also moved some half-way back to its respective low-risk signal! F6 peaked in the upper 80’s again, several weeks back in December, and has been making its way down. It signals at 10 or lower, and quite a ways to go to get there, but it can move fast, and is already at 67.

With the stock program, it specifically identifies the “true” market top as being Thursday, 12/17. The number of stocks it called as buys, in relation to the number it said to sell, commenced to fall away. In a similar vein, the indicator that it calculates to determine short-term market strength also peaked on that same day, and it has been slipping away since, as well.

My take-away from all of this, is that I think I see a short-term sell-off or decline, that will not be deep, and will serve to reset at least 5 of those 8 indicators I most strongly rely upon. Even the old standard RSI indicator likewise peaked on 12/17, and IT has been working its way down, and is now not far from having worked itself nearly halfway down to where it would give an oversold market signal.

Yup, look for possible short-term weakness to potentially set-up for still another strong leg up in this rally. And, WHY? Because the FED keeps rates ridiculously low, and the Congress keeps throwing money at all the world to stimulate the economy. You get yours yet??? Many have!

Harold

Your Results May Vary…

Monday, January 4, 2021. You know the line… Well, what I am going to report is NOT actual, but only hypothetical… yadda, yadda, yadda. But, there is good reason for it… or, an excuse, however you want to take it.

It’s important to demonstrate just how well a strategy works, or nobody is going to want to try it. So, first, understand that the goal here is not some kind of stock market out-performance. It’s not… the market goes up 10%, but we mange to find stocks that double the market’s return every year. That’s not my goal.

The idea is to invest in companies that pay, and raise their dividend. The higher the yield, the better, but only if it is sustainable and grows at a rate that exceeds inflation. Because the goal is to live off of only the portfolio dividend income in retirement, and NOT spend down the capital that you’ve accumulated over your working life. Get it? The difference is incredibly huge, when you THINK about it.

Now, since I only started repopulating the wife’s account with these issues starting in September, I’ll explain that… had we started 2020 with all these issues in her account, in an equal amount, the average price of all was $102.22 a share. Yes, they got hammered in the spring, and recovered as the market did, but the objective was to leave everything in place through whatever comes, with the idea that the ever-growing dividend income stream NEVER stops!!! The average closing price of all within the account at the end of ’20 was $120.52 a share, for a 17.9% gain. That does not take into account ANY dividends. People do different things with them. And the dividend income would have pushed the final number over 21%.

We retain our dividends in cash, in the account… we still add cash to our accounts. We just haven’t needed to take any of the income yet. Others will want that income, and cannot add any more to their accounts. So, what was the income like? The portfolio dividend income average was $2.62 a share at the beginning of ’20, but ended the year at $2.90 a share, for an actual 10.69% pay raise, that came incrementally throughout the entire year.

I don’t know about you, but the Soc Sec Administration has so very graciously and generously raised our monthly SSI by, what is it… 1.3%?!?!?!? I think a 10% raise is way better than 1%!!! And, the analyzer says the future expectation is for 12% annual dividend increases, too. Now, that’s what I’m talkin’ about!

Now, our current portfolio dividend yield is 3.59%, and rising fast… as fast as the increases come in. So, by the end of ’21, will we be looking at very close to 4%?!?!? We should be! Then what, 4.4% or better by the end of ’22? That’s how it works, friends!

More later… any questions, comments, or snide remarks?

Harold

What A Year!

Sunday, January 3, 2021. Well, this was the year that was! You can say THAT again! Right?

First, let’s update our timing effort. I have very successfully employed the OEXpert 7 Stock Market Timing program since I bought it new in ’92. Best I can tell, it’s the only operating one in existence in the entire universe! I have shared it with a few friends, that I might not lose it, while it operates on a dedicated laptop running Windows XP, the last MS operating system to support the timer.

There are 7 indicators… Price is above its upper trading band, which is indicative that market risk is probably high. The F1 indicator is only in the mid-40’s, and it shows possible room to keep on running. Likewise, F2 is not terribly high, and there’s room overhead, before it would be measuring high risk. F3 is at 80… that’s high! F4 is as F1 and F2… room to continue to rise. F5 has been declining, and sits at 71. It’s coming down from the high 90’s and is saying that risk is working its way off! Finally, F6 also looks to be at 71, but rising… not much more before it would be saying risk is high.

So, what’s my take? I see room for more market advance still. I last noted the two most recent low-risk market entry points were in the latter part of September, and called it… and, then again, in the very end of October, which was another very good call. It lifted off then, and has been climbing since!

Now, as for actual performance in ’20. I wrote of how we would not need our portfolio income I’d set us up for, back in February. In May, my wife and I realized we did not, in any way, need to have so much market risk, and we sold on the morning of Monday, May 4. Then, thru July and August, my beloved put me in mind to consider how that she would make out on her retirement income alone, if anything were to “happen” to me… All this is in past posts throughout 2020.

So, beginning in September, I began to repopulate her account with safe-dividend growers, but by means of a very different search than I had previously pioneered. The previous search was very heavily biased toward a long-term EPS line, if you will recall, but it occurred to me that I could IGNORE that line, and just look at only a very long price line, and DIVIDEND PAYOUT history. Further, I could conduct my search, from the very highest paying dividend yields, toward the lowest. That worked like a charm! It’s like looking for a ‘needle in a haystack,’ but they are there… and you know one when you see one!

So, I’ll write more about that later… family calls, and I must run.

Harold