Do You Like Pay Raises?

Thursday, October 14, 2021. I like pay raises. I like them so much that I like to get new ones every month! I’m going to go thru our holdings alphabetically and see who has raised us in recent times and note those here for you… but, really, for me and my wife. I haven’t told her about our recent dividend increase “pay raises” in a while.

Charting each one and going down the list… I see AFG has raised here in October from $2.00 a share to $2.24 a share. That $.24 a share increase is a 12% pay raise, and our yield to us at our purchase price is now 3.58%. That’s a good number! BST has just raised to us from $2.24 a share a year ago to the new current $3.00 a share. That’s a $.76 a share increase for a whoppin’ 33.9% “pay raise.” Yes! I love it! Our yield on our purchase price is, get this now, 6.61%! That’s what I’m talking about! BSTZ has likewise raised our dividend from $1.38 a share to its new current $2.30 a share for an incredible 66.67% “pay raise.” Wow! Our yield on our purchase price is now a truly amazing 8.33%. That is totally awesome! I am blown away!

Now, to be honest, I was advised by a newsletter service to buy FXO, which I did. It’s dividend has been in decline, and is now down to $.80 a share from $.92 a share a year ago. But, it has appreciated, since our purchase by 84% and its current yield to our purchase price is still 3.16%, so I’m willing to hold for now.

I’ve been keen on IIPR ever since a good friend kept touting it. I looked into it and bought 3 times my usual first purchase amount. It has raised from $4.23 a share one year ago to its present $6.00 a share which is a 41.8% dividend increase. Our yield on our purchase price is currently 4.80%. Honestly, where are you ever going to find returns like these? I’ve got another on the advice of a newsletter. It’s dividend has been in something of a bit of a decline over the past year from a high of $1.45 a share to its present $1.40 a share, which isn’t so bad. But, it has also appreciated 80.6% since purchase and the yield to us at that price we paid is 3.59%. Again, a perfectly fine number. A much more recent purchase of ours is MGP which just raised from $1.95 a year ago to a present $2.08. That’s a $.15 increase for a 6.67% raise. Our yield at our cost of not too very long ago is at 5.35%. Again, a very fine number.

I am going to sell our shares of MJ. They are simply not doing the job for which I hired them. The dividend has been going in the entirely wrong direction. Price has been in a steady decline, and we have a gain of some 16%, but our current yield is now 1.94%. I’m selling. I have to be away tomorrow, but I’ll put the order in before I leave the house, or it can wait until Monday. That will open up a new place in the portfolio for a suitable replacement. I’ll start looking for one asap.

Microsoft, MSFT, has raised us from $2.24 a share to now $2.48 a share. That’s a 10.71% dividend increase. Our yield on purchase is now 1.18%. We have realized an increase from SCHD which was paying us $1.89 a share a year ago, but has raised us to $2.23 a share for a 18% increase. Our yield on that amount we paid for our shares stands at 4.03% at this time. Not bad at all! On the other hand, we also hold shares of SCHV and that has not done as well. It cut us recently. It was paying $2.04 a share one year ago, and is only $1.38 a share now. That still yields to us 2.65% and we have a 34% gain in the value of our holding, but I am losing patience with this one, and it may go.

The average dividend per share of our holdings was $2.82 and has risen the past 12 months to a current $3.10 a share on average. That’s a $.28 a share increase, or 10%. The dividend yield of our portfolio stands at 3.90% at this time, and is growing rapidly. It could conceivably be paying us anywhere between 7.5 and possibly 8% in about 7 years time from now.

I’ll close on this note… between my wife’s retirement income and my own… we don’t even need the income our retirement investments is generating… yet. Inflation is rearing its ugly head, and the day may come.

Harold F Crowell

It’s Only Getting Better!

Monday, October 4, 2021. I am loving this… Let’s see what the timer is saying… First of all, in my stock analyzer program, none of the indicators there are ready yet. But my ancient OEXpert 7 generates more frequent signals anyway, so is it saying that now is one of those times???

F1 is at 21 and trying to turn back down. It signaled previously, and that is still in effect. Price is now peaking under both of its lower trading bands. F2 has gotten to where pretty tradable bottoms have formed in the past. F3 rarely signals at 10, but is now at 13, and is getting ever so close! F4 is under -30! That’s a great signal! F5 signals at 40 and is now under 30! It’s ON! F6 is at 5 and is an incredible signal when it zeroes!

I am good with this! I do hear other’s saying get out… this market is going to crash here in October… hey, maybe it will, but here’s what I would hope for… a high-volume sell-off that tags and even takes out for a little bit the 200-day moving averages. If anything like that should show itself tomorrow, I will be doing some buying!!!

O, and I’ve “bungered-up” my right knee and I’m not moving much, so maybe I’ll be able settle down and focus on things a little more….

Harold

Now You’re Talkin’! Almost…….

Tuesday, September 28, 2021. I didn’t feel at all comfortable acting on the ‘near’ signal I was getting back on the 21st there. As it lifted off, I just didn’t feel like I needed to do a thing. Now, here, these past couple of days, I’m getting a good feeling about this, and I updated, thinking that a real opportunity might come upon us here soon. Will it?

As I update all my indicators in the OEXpert 7, F1 had gotten down to 10 and reversed. It’s gotten up to 23 and looks to want to roll back down. It has signaled already. The ever-early, typically useless F2 is right back to where it was a week ago… It’s signaled. Now, F3 is real close to joining this chorus, and that’s a truly big deal. Now, at 18, should it tag 10 or lower, and we’ll really have something there. F4 is in our corner and we’ve got a go with it. F5 is now at 50. We hope for a 40. Like F3, if it should signal, I’ll shout it from the rooftops! Finally, F6 had already touched 10, to signal and reversed upward. Like F1, it has gone flat before it might get to go back down. It’s prior signal is still effective. So, what have we got? F1, F2, F4 and F6. Can we get F3 and F5 to also signal? If they are going to, it might be in this week. If we go lower again tomorrow, I’ll be all over to update, so watch for it.

As I look into the stock analyzer and its timing functions, I don’t see a thing there to give me reason that it is close to signaling, like it was a week ago, so I will look back there, too, should we get lower here in the immediate future. It’s just about shopping list compilation time, I’m thinking.

Harold Crowell

On the Edge of My Seat!

Tuesday, September 21, 2021… Evening. Let’s look closely. F1 is at 9 and is under its lower band, we have a good signal. The price is still at its 2 lower trading bands. F2 has gone pretty deep and signaled. F3 has plunged to 29, and needs to make 10 to signal. Will it? F4 looks to be at -60 and has signaled. F5 has made it down to 64. That’s not a signal, but it’s also not far off from where it’s only been able to get to in the past 4 most recent reversals to the upside, too. F6 is now under its lowest trading band… under 20 and that is technically a signal, though I love it when it hits 10 or even 0!

So, price is there and we have a signal with F1, F2, F4 and pretty much with F6, too.

In the stock analyzer, there’s nothing there to go on, but the intra-day touches of the lines I rely on for signals in a couple of its indicators that took place Monday.

We’re in a place of relatively low-risk entry. I sure could wish some more would get wrung out, but it is time to start making a shopping list and making picking up some more shares in either present holdings, or maybe in some new attractive ones. If I can get the time to seriously look, I’ll posts some symbols and a few notes on them.

Harold

Flash Crash?

Tuesday, September 21, 2021. I’ve updated and I am watching for a low-risk market entry signal. Yesterday the QQQ declined steeply and on big enough volume, one could think that we experienced a panic selloff, as volume approached that level of the last noted low-risk entry time about mid-May… May 12 and 13… and was the highest volume since that time.

So, what can we surmise? The price of the QQQ dropped into and closed a bit above its 2 lower trading bands, and the F1 indicator stopped at 12… It’s a signal, or very near signal. I much prefer 10 or lower. F2, ever early, and at -13, is signaling. F3, at 55, is slow and often does not participate… it does not have to. F4 is under 0, at -3 and needs some time yet. Likewise, F5 has only gotten down to 76 and is is still in the high risk reading zone! Finally, F6, ever reliable, especially with F1, is only half-way there, at 45 and needs time to get to 10 or lower.

This leads me to believe that today’s early price action may well be nothing more than a bounce before some further decline. I would hope so, as I’ve a good deal of cash I’d like to put to work, should I get a really fine signal.

Well, then there is that which it says for the OEX… F1 is at 11 and the price in the lower bands. Signal. F2 is real deep for a signal. F3 is at 36 or 7 and in that vicinity where its recent signals have been… Hmmm. F4 is under -30 and that is a signal. F5 is at 70, and we’d like to see 40 or lower, which it has not done in some time. Typically between 50 and 60 has been it turning point of late. But, F6, at 23 and above its lower band at 20 is a near signal, and that with F1 can constitute a fine signal, but has not yet.

What does the timing function in my stock analyzer say? As I look into that program its number of Buys in relation to the number of Sells it generates is near to a signal, and may have intra-day yesterday… I’ve not the time to look right now. Same could be said for its own short-term measure of Relative Strength. It also closed short of a signal, but actually may have intra-day yesterday as well. Standard market RSI DID close below 30 yesterday, so that signaled. One other thing I see clearly is that the intra-day bounce yesterday commence from off of a very clear line of market price support.

Was yesterday a market low, and a low-risk entry? I cannot yet say… I would NEED to look into these indicators I just mentioned on an intra-day basis… so, I will.

I SEE that the signal I use concerning a ratio between program generated buys and sells did touch my signal line! AND I also see that my signal line for market strength in the short-term, as generated by this program was also touched intra-day yesterday.

So, my conclusion? Yesterday could have indeed marked a low-risk buying opportunity, and that by the volume on the QQQ represent something of a panic sell-off sort of “flash crash.” OR, this may be a bounce and a precursor to a steeper decline, which would certainly bring nearly all my indicators into line, for a good all-out signal.

One could be a bit of a buyer now, and but with a portion of your cash. that’s the only most reasonable effort to make at this moment. I will have to wait a bit, as I MUST attend to matters that cannot wait, or I would step up and add some shares to some of my positions right now.

Harold

So Sorry… Been Busier’n a One-Armed Paper-Hanger!

Tuesday, September 7, 2021. Honestly, I don’t remember ever being busier in my life.. and, I’m retired! But, our statements became available online, and once again, we got PAID for holding safe-dividend growing stocks. So, who paid, how much and did we experience more income growth?

We received dividend income from 18 of our holdings. They were: ABBV, AFG, APO, BMY, BST, BSTZ, CVS, EVA, INVH, LNT, MAIN, Money Fnd, NEP, NHI, NXST, O, SII, and UTG.

August income was 6.7% higher than May, 3 months ago and 29.8% higher than February’s 6 months ago… and 40.4% higher than last November, 9 months ago. Can you believe that??? I did some buying and added some shares and new positions along the way, but not by any great amounts.

AFG’s looks to have been a special payout. They’re real good like that, not to mention it’s appreciated 120%! It looks like EVA raised. I’ll get the details. NEP must have raised. And it looks as if NHI cut! That’s not cool.

Yeh, EVA has been raising right along, every quarter this year. I see in the charts a big bump coming from LRCX. They’re raising from $5.20 to $6.00 a share for a 15.38% dividend increase “pay raise”!!! Sweet! Current yield is 1.01%, but our shares are already yielding 1.66% and a 69% price gain as well. MO will be raising from $3.44 to $3.60, for a 4.65% raise. Share price has reversed course and begun to show new signs of life, too. We have a 28% gain in them in about a year’s time. Our yield is… 8.94% on our shares, Current yield is 7.09%. Get some. NEP has been raising each qtr. The annual increase has been from $2.19 to $2.51 a share for a 14.61% raise. Love it! Ah, looking more closely… I sold NHI already! Must be what I sold to buy MGP a bit ago, as I don’t want MORE issues than that number we hold now… 50 is quite enough!

So, 2 days ago, our portfolio closed at a new all-time price high. If we are going to correct, I’d love to see it now, this fall, that I might add some more shares from out of all of this cash we are sitting on.

Harold F Crowell

Going Thru Some 1,800 Charts

Thursday, August 5, 2021. So, with my program and its database of some 9,000 symbols, I can sort that database by Dividend Yield. The highest paying stock, at a present 330%… Yeh, that won’t last for long, is something called Retail Holdings, symbol RHDGF. But, by the time I’ve viewed the first 100 issues, I’m down to a yield of 9.96%, and I haven’t seen anything of buyable interest. I purposely look at those first to get sufficiently disgusted, that I can hardly wait to land upon some truly good looking ideas, which will start to come to me a few hundred more charts later! Until I get well under a 6% threshold, might anything begin to look attractive. All before that appears as real trash.

After 200 charts, I’m down to LUKOY with an 8.15% yield, and no bites. Another couple hundred, and I am now down to the 6% level, and nothing yet. I’m some 400+ charts in and at a current 5.91%, I could see anyone putting some 2% into 1.) MAIN, Mainstreet Capital.

I own some MAIN, and I next find and own some 2.) EVA, Enviva Partners, a clean energy company. I believe its a wood pellet operation for all those that heat with that kind of a stove… many do. I find a few more interesting ideas, and own 3.) MGP, 4.) BSTZ and 5.) BST. Just 1% of our stock monies in each of those 4. I’m hundreds of charts deep, and down into the 4% range. Few are to be considered as ‘worthy.’ Then, there is 6.) ABBV. AbbVie is a bio-pharma, and 1% in it.

Hundreds of charts later and dipping into the 3’s, I still cannot find hardly a thing worth even pausing to look at! But, right at 4.01% is 7.) O, Realty Income. I own it, I put 4% into it. It is an incredibly conservative, stodgy REIT, but a very worthy asset to buy and hold. Check it out! Look, you might think this crazy, but I say put some gold in your portfolio, and let it pay you, too… I do, I did, and I put 2% into 8.) BTG in that place… It’s paying 3.84%. And, if metals respond to inflation, you’ll be in a good place with some. 9.) CCOI at 3.82% is worthy of a 1% position. For utility exposure, and that is an area you want to be in, my first stop is 10.) BIP, paying a 3.77% yield, but I’ve only 1% in it. That’s 14% of assets placed in 10 positions so far…

I find 11.) COR, at a 1% position and paying 3.63% attractive. Next up, 12.) Flowers Foods, FLO. Nice chart. We’ve 3% here. Now paying 3.57%. That’s some 18% in 12 positions… I’ll be running out of 3%’s and dipping into the 2’s shortly. That’s the problem. Stock valuations are so high, and seeking income in stocks is tough at this time. Our average is at 3.87%, and I can’t find hardly a thing even here in the 3’s. Next up is a gas utility, 13.) SRE, Sempra Energy, a worthy buy at a current 3.33%, and we’ve put 1% here. I own some 14.) APO, but it’s more volatile than most and that I actually prefer, but with 1% there, it does alright. It currently yields 3.30%… Mine yields 4.13% on our purchase price. You might wanna pass, or if 1% doesn’t scare you in the very least… go ahead and snap up some shares. I own 15.) BIPC as a spin-off of BIP. It’s a good hold, another utility fund. It pays 3.17% now. Think about 1% here. A true beauty is 16.) NEP. NextEra Energy. It’s paying 3.15%, but it’s chart is quite incredible… Don’t know how long it can maintain such a trajectory, but we’ve another 1% in this. Gotta get some 17.) DLR, Digital Realty. It pays 2.99% now. We put 3% in this one. Get some 18.) AVGO, Broadcom! I am ashamed to say we only placed 1% here. Sure, it’s a tech stock, but wow, what a mover! You should put more, 2 or even 3% here. Semiconductors will only see demand grow. I should have bought 19.) AMGN, and I’d tell you to. I may get some yet, as I go through our current holdings and maybe toss something out for it. It’s paying 2.88%, and is looking good. Get some 20.) SCHD, a Schwab fund. Nice chart. It’s paying 2.85% and we’ve 1% in it.

I MUST stop here, but… Here are 20 great ideas. Check them out. Get back to me with any questions, if you would like, and I’ll try to get the answer. Of these 20 ideas, you could have some 30% of your stock available cash to work in these. I hope to get back with more in a while… This has given me an idea!

Harold

How Many & What % REITS?

Wednesday, August 4, 2021. A reader asked me in the comments section, how many and % of my holdings are in REITS, Real Estate Investment Trusts. That was truly a good question, and my answer was simply that I did not know. Why was that?

My selection process doesn’t take into account what any security is. Because I look at long-term charts, I am only looking for those issues that are “doing the job.” What I simply mean is, if the price rises in a relatively decent manner from left to right, and the historical dividend payout pattern has a steady stair-step appearance to it… And, both price and dividend have OUTPERFORMED the S&P 500 over that same time frame, my only other concern is to ask them to keep on doing what they have been doing, for as long as it will work to do so.

There’s no magic to it, and it is just as the industry mantra goes… “Past performance is no indication of future results.” Right. I get that, but in another sense, the retort in our industry always was… “Yeh, but it’s also pretty much all we have to go on.” You can employ all the analysts you want, but their prognostications about any company’s future, do not tend to prove too very prescient… so, what’s left…

I’m just one person with some rather extensive data that can be turned into pictures called charts. I chart price and I chart the dividend payout. These become pictures. I can compare any one symbol’s picture against a similar picture of all the issues within the S&P 500, and I can say this picture is “prettier” than that picture, so I’ll buy some shares of that. I buy-to-hold some 50 “pretty” pictures, and check up on them once a week to update my prices, and look for any “anomalies,” anything that might have gone askew. If none have… Good! I also await my monthly brokerage statement announcements in my email, and update my portfolio dividend income file, and check up on our dividend income and its growth. Really, that’s about it. I want to see income growing well, and prices can pretty much do as they will… But, I learned this; safe-dividend growers become “Price Magnets,” and pull their share price up with them at a rate that typically corresponds with their dividend rate increases… Find steady double-digit dividend growth, and you will find share price growth that will match it.

So, back to the readers question: How many REITS and what % of my holdings or portfolio are they. Of our 50 holdings, 8 are REITS. That would come out to 16% of our positions. As to what % of our portfolio in dollars and cents. What portion they are now is rather immaterial. What portion they were as we bought and added them is. In alphabetical order, we acquired these 8 holdings out of 50 in these proportions of out stock portfolio: 3% went into CCI, 1% in COR, 3% to DLR, 1% in INVH, 1% in MAA, 1% to NHI, 1% for NSA and 4% in O. That would amount to some 15% of our investible assets allocated to stocks went into REITS.

So how do we conclude here? Real Estate is a very important and valuable asset class. Any long-term, buy-to-hold kind of an investor should certainly have some. There are many kinds or varieties of real estate. Some have proven to be better investments than others. This can be seen in their charts. A REIT comprised of movie cinema complexes in this period of Netflix and Covid has had an especially tough time… might that make for a great trade? Sure. Am I interested in trading it? Not in the least. I’m investing for safe-dividend growth. That’s precisely what I am experiencing. If that’s what you want to do… you’ve come to the right place. If you’re looking for the visionary seer who knows what the next great technological breakthrough is going to be, and that company’s penny-stock that is going to make you fabulously wealthy in the next 5 to 10 years… I’m not that guy!

Harold F Crowell

July Portfolio Dividend Income

Tuesday, August 3, 2021. The notices arrived and the monthly statements have been examined. We got PAID in July!

My wife and I do not invest as others for appreciation or growth. We don’t want appreciation in our retirement. We want income! We want income that grows at a rate that exceeds inflation. We don’t want to sell off holdings to meet our retirement lifestyle. We want an ever-growing stream of portfolio dividend income that we may take each month, as we learn who paid us, and how much. The goal will be to leave the portfolio intact and for our children. You can do the very same!

So, in July, we were paid by 17 of our holdings. In alphabetical order, they were: AFG, BST, BSTZ, COR, HASI, IIPR, LEN, LRCX, MAA, MAIN, MO, Mon Fnd, NLY, O, SRE, UTG, and XEL.

Not much by way of “pay raises” to report this month, but I see that IIPR did raise us from $3.84 a share last year to a new level of $5.60 a share for a glorious 45.83% increase! That is simply phenomenal. and our current yield on investment is now 4.48%, and share price is up 71% besides. I see on the chart that NEP has raised us in July from $2.19 to what we will next receive as $2.51 a share. That will be a 14.62% increase! Also, very nice. Realty Income tries to raise a little something every quarter, and we see that consistent and steady income growth happening all the time.

Everything seems to be right on target. A year ago, the average dividend per share was $2.81. As of this time, it is $3.09 a share on average. That would be a 9.96% portfolio dividend increase “pay raise.” While the average dividend yield of our holdings, at current prices, is 2.30%… since we began to construct this portfolio last September, and prices have risen since then, along with the dividend increases we received from nearly every holding, our current dividend yield on our total investment is present 3.87%, or some 68.26% higher now. Let that sink in…

The average dividend yield of our holdings of $3.09 a share at the most recent close is 2.30%. BUT, the present dividend yield of our holdings, based upon the price that we paid for all of our shares, beginning last September is 3.87%. It does so happen that as we might add more shares, our own current yield would look smaller, but then any new shares also commence their travel up in price, with dividends growing and yielding higher.

What caused and resulted in this 68% higher yield? There are two factors involved. The first is our earlier purchase prices paid mostly in September of last year. The other is that we actually experienced and benefitted from any dividend increases since our purchases upwards of some 11 months ago, as nearly every holding has raised its dividend to us.

The point of it all is simply this… do some planning and determine how much income you need to be generating in your portfolio by the time you want to retire. Revise, edit and update that retirement income goal anytime that you need to, and grow your portfolio dividend income as rapidly as possible… until you know that you can retire, and leave your workplace, if you want to! My wife and I are there… and, we planned so well… all of our other sources of retirement income are presently enough to meet all our current need… But most of that is also fixed, or nearly so, and the day will likely come when we will want to begin to take that income our invested monies is generating.

Until then, we intend to continue to cause it to be growing! (should I even mention, as an afterthought, that just checking on the prices, I realize that we have closed at a new, all-time high value! That’s incredible… we even get to realize that for which we’re not even investing for!)

Harold F Crowell

It’s “Payday” Once Again!

Wednesday, July 7, 2021. The brokerage statements have been made available and the results are in. June was a great month for dividend income!

We received dividends from 30 holdings! They were, in alphabetical order: ABC, AFG, ANTH, AVGO, BIP, BIPC, BLK, BST, BSTZ, BTG, CCI, DLR, ES, FLO, FXO, HD, KRE, MAIN, MJ, Mon Fnd, MSFT, NSA, O, SCHD, SCHV, SII, UNH, UTG, WEC and WPM.

We received a whopping lump sum from AFG. I don’t know what that was about… Nor do I care. We just gladly take it! So because of that extraordinary dividend from AFG, the income looks like this for us. Our June income was 70.34% higher than from March just 3 months ago. Higher than last December’s by 48.38%, and did better than last September’s, 9 months back, by 198.91%… a near triple! Whohoo!!!

On a more realistic sort of a basis, I go to my stock program, where I can chart all issues as one, Price has hit a new all-time high in value today, as I type this… which makes sense, as the indexes are doing the same. One year ago, the average dividend per share among all our holdings was $2.81. As of this point in time, that average has risen to its present $3.09 a share, which is indicative of an organic growth of 9.96% these past 12 months.

In the month of June there looks to have been a dividend cut from FXO, from $.86 to $.83 a share. ETFs will fluctuate a bit like that, and is typically NO cause for concern. I see that IIPR has raised us from $3.84 a year ago to $5.60 in June, for a near 46% pay raise! KRE, another ETF has mildly cut us from $1.45 to $1.42 a share, as ETFs might. MJ, one more ETF, has also cut. This was from $.58 to $.36 a share. I should take a look. Maybe it needs to be culled out? I’ve got a healthcare related REIT that indicates it has cut from $4.41 a share back to $3.60. That doesn’t impress either. That makes 2 to take a harder look at. NSA raised us from $1.40 to $1.52 a share in June… not quite 10%, but I’ll gladly take it. O tries to raise only, and a little bit often. It’s paying another penny this quarter, from $2.82 to $2.83, and up only from $2.80 a year ago. SCHD has raised us from $2.09 to $2.19 a share, about 5%. SCHV has also raised us from $1.39 to $1.67, which is a nice raise of 20.14%. UNH has raised our pay in June, from $5.00 to $5.80 a share, and that is a lovely 16% increase! The utility fund UTG gave us an increase of $.12, from $2.16 a share to $2.28.

It’s all good! The projected earnings increase among our holdings, looking out into the future, looks to be a possible or potential 15%, but I put little stock in such prognostication. Divided growth is projected to be on the order of 12% a year, looking out there. That’s a lovely number that would double our income in 6 years! If it also poses a “dividend magnet” effect upon price, it will follow suit… especially if interest rates continue to remain low.

Our current portfolio dividend yield stands, as of now, at 3.87%, and rising. How long before we are generating a portfolio yield of 4%??? May not be long! That would be a great milestone… where else am I going to earn a 4% yield?

Harold F Crowell