Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Pop to New Highs

Tuesday, June 20, 7:53 am EST. The major indexes popped to new highs yesterday. I had said that all this sideways consolidation action was resulting in market risk actually coming out, and that it was a sign of market strength. Little did I know that it would attempt to pop its head up above the consolidative sideways channel and hit new highs. It’ll be interesting to see if this is going to follow-through, and another new rally ensues.

By everything I had looked at, the stock market had been lulled to sleep, and was perfectly content to drift sideways. So, in case it wants to run again, it’s worth putting together a shopping list of potential buy candidates. I’ll be a buyer of more shares among these: AOS, ROL, ROST, OZRK, UNH, JKHY, CMCSA, AFG, ICE and SNX.

I’ve found a really good, new, safe-dividend grower! Check out Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII). It’s probably the greatest defense industry company you’ve never heard of before! I want some of this!

Another incredible up and comer is Kingstone, symbol KINS, in the insurance brokers industry. Want to take a safe bet? Add some, and hold forever!


Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

A Sign of Strength?

Saturday, June 17, 8:18 am EST. The stock market would appear to be engaged in a sideways consolidation at this time. What makes this so interesting, is that risk is being wrung out, and the opportunity for another rally to erupt, is what would look to be taking place. The market will not go down. For every seller, here around these most recent all-time highs, there are buyers gobbling up those shares! This is a sign of enormous stock market strength… so far.

I’ve updated the timer, and I can ‘see’ the risk coming out, as the technical measures of risk decline, while the market goes sideways. This is going to be interesting. If the market should take off again, from these higher levels, as measured by the Dow and the 500; watch to see if the beat up techs that have been sold off hard since Thursday, the 8th, also begin to strongly recover. IF you see that action taking place, buy it! If you’ve wanted those tech stocks, buy them. If you’ve cash to buy more shares of our safe-dividend growers, as I do… buy them!

What I think I see is risk coming out of stocks, while they go sideways, and I see risk coming out of the precious metals sector; all at the same time. Further, the indications would appear to be that these might culminate in another new opportunity to enter as early as some day within next week, and maybe closer to the end of next week, than the beginning. In any case, I’ll be updating daily, and watching closely… to see if we’ll drop, or if risk gets to that place, while prices remain high, that a new, and surprising ‘nother rally, should take off!

I’ll be away next week, but there’s wi-fi where I’m going, and I’ll have working laptops along. Also, perhaps before this weekend is gone, I’ll run my search again, and post the results, as this would be my preliminary ‘shopping list’, as I begin to prepare for what may be coming in as little as maybe one week’s time. May God bless you all!


Stock Market Investing, Uncategorized

Want To Take A Trade?

Tuesday, June 6, 8:57 am EST. It has been brought to my attention one particular ETF you might want to take a position in. I’m talking about the ETF having the symbol EMQQ. Look into it. I have been, and I’m going to go long some of it today.

In particular, check out the Fidelity info on it here: https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/snapshot.jhtml?symbols=EMQQ

Note especially it’s Top 10 Holdings… that’s what sold me! Some 60.1% are those names!!!

I already own some speculative positions in IPAY, which is working out well, and in KWEB, which is another ‘Big Idea’. I’m ahead by nearly 20% in each, but both, I believe, have a very long way to go, and I’d put EMQQ in the very same category.

So, please, do your own diligence. Look into these at whatever online resource you rely upon, and don’t hesitate to share what you learn that either convinced you to, or not to, invest. I consider all of these multi-year holds with huge potential upside, but I’ll put a stop under each one, so that I don’t get hurt, should things head south.


Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Bank On It! OZRK

Saturday, May 27, 9:26 pm EST. I recently wrote of UNH, and highly recommended it. I own some. It’s one of my core holdings. The reason is clear and simple… It’s a true safe-dividend grower. It pays an incredibly safe dividend. It’s a truly growing business, and it has been raising its dividend at a prodigious rate, such that years down the road, the yield could easily be in the double-digits for those who are holders of shares now. For me, it’s about as close to a set-it and forget-it holding I can think of.

My next best current idea is the Bank of the Ozarks, symbol, OZRK. Do check it out. Another incredibly safe-dividend grower, it meets my three principal criteria. The chart line of its 12-month, analysts’ estimate of forward-looking earnings estimates is a thing of beauty to behold. The chart of its dividend payout history is an ever-growing stair-step pattern of continual growth. It starts at $.10 a share 10 years ago, and has grown 7-fold, or 600%, to $.70 a share today. And, price reflects the safety and quality here, too; having moved from $7.27 a share 10 years ago, to $45.61 Friday. That’s more than 6-fold, 527% appreciation!

OZRK is paying a $.70 a share, 1.53% yield, but at its rate of annualized growth, will be returning lovely numbers in just a few short years down the road. Never buy on my say-so. Check it out in whatever trusted venue you employ, and ask yourself if it meets your requirements. I’ve taken a position, and may just never let it go. It just might get bought one day, by one of the much larger major national banks. If that should happen, expect it to get taken out at a nice premium to your purchase price.

Analysis I’m looking at indicates that it is on a 21% annual earnings growth path at this time, and a calculation of its value puts it at approximately $74 a share, while it is only currently trading at under $46.

By my calculation, if OZRK earns some $3.30 a share 12 months from now, the dividend only represents a payout of 21% of that projection. The payout ratio of current earnings is 25%… super-safe!

Bank of the Ozarks strikes me as an awesome investment for continued growth of a safe-dividend payout. I want INCOME in my retirement, and I want it growing to me at a very high rate… preferably in the inflation-beating teens. This one looks to keep on doing that for me for life.

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized


Tuesday, May 16, 7:42 am EST. If you haven’t yet, please read my previous post. Whereas stocks have continued to remain high, and I did say that the timer is not be considered a good top caller; it was also saying risk in the precious metals was low, and that call proved to be prescient, as metals turned upward right from the date of my last post below. I write a metals blog here: https://goldstocktraderblog.wordpress.com/  if you are interested.

I’ll be back again shortly with something on my latest stock research.


Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Is Stock Risk High?

Wednesday May 10, 6:01 am EST. Just doing some of my regular diligence, I see that the conditions I noted one month ago have reversed. Middle of the third week of April, I was saying that risk in stocks was measuring low, while the risk I was measuring in precious metals and their miners was high. As of today, I am registering the very opposite. I am measuring risk as being high in stocks, and is now low in the metals and miners.

I’m thinking that there might be kind of a bit of a reversal of fortunes, as I expect that the metals may once again shine soon, and that stocks are in need of cooling off, taking a breather, and perhaps come back a bit.

Of course, all this remains to be seen, but my old OEXpert 7 Timer seems to do such a tremendous job of making these calls, but especially calling stock market bottoms, for which it was created… so, with that last thought in mind. It’s not the best stock top-caller, nor is it the best gold and silver bottoming caller… but it is saying risk in stocks is high, and risk in metals is low. By making both calls simultaneously, perhaps its accuracy is greater? Let’s watch and we will see!


Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

How To Retire In 10 Years!

Going thru old files in Word, I came across this. It’s a worthy read.

“How to Retire in 10 Years with Dividend Stocks

Follow these 5 dividend rules to ease the way towards retirement

Feb 3, 2014

The goal of every dividend investor is to generate a sufficient stream of passive dividend income that would adequately cover their expenses. In order to achieve this goal however, investors need to select a strategy and fine-tune it over time to reflect current market conditions.

I tend to focus on investing that would generate dividends for several decades to come. But how would someone who wants to retire in one decade afford to retire?

Follow the guidelines in this article, and you might end up being one of the lucky ones who can afford to quit the rat race in a decade.

The first guideline is to contribute regularly to your dividend portfolio. This is important, because it allows our investor to dollar cost average their way over many years. This would provide them with the opportunity to build their portfolio brick by brick, without purchasing everything as a lump sum. Many articles on retirement focus on lump sum investing, which is not relevant to most future retirees.

The second guideline is to focus on dividend growth stocks, which are companies that regularly raise distributions. Since our dividend investor is likely to live off distributions for decades to come, they need to overcome the risk of inflation. As a result, they need to invest in stocks that can afford to regularly increase dividends, thus ensuring an inflation adjusted stream of income.

The third guideline is to buy quality dividend stocks at attractive valuations. This is the step where the savings added to the brokerage account need to be invested. Investors should develop a set of standard screening criteria, in order to narrow down the list of dividend payers to a more manageable level.

I typically look for companies yielding more than 2.50%, which have raised dividends for at least ten years in a row and trade at less than 20 times earnings. I then further avoid companies with high dividend payout ratios, depending on their industry and business form.

After I do this, I research each stock in detail, to determine if it has what it takes to keep raising earnings and dividends over time. This is the most subjective part of the process. However, if you create a properly diversified portfolio of income stocks as outlined in the next step, you have a very good chance of success, even if you picked average companies.

The fourth rule is to focus on creating a diversified income portfolio, to reduce risk. To protect yourself, your goal is to have your income stream come from as many companies as possible. Leave the task of outperforming the market each year to the people who want to manage other people’s money or who are trying to sell you expensive newsletters.

Your goal is to create an income stream that grows over time, which will support you in your retirement. As a result, to have a defensible income stream, you need to own at least 30 individual income stocks representative from as many industries as possible.

Ideally, you would own three stocks from each of the ten sectors identified by Standard and Poor’s, which comprise the S&P 500 index. In reality, however, it might be difficult to achieve this strict diversification. However, since you are building your portfolio over a long period of time, you will likely be able to purchase quality stocks from different sectors, which would be priced right at different times over the next decade.

The fifth rule is to reinvest dividends selectively in these quality income stocks over the next decade. Until you reach your target dividend income, you need to use the power of dividend growth, new capital contributions and dividends received to plow back into your portfolio and turbocharge your dividend income.

I typically avoid reinvesting dividends automatically. Instead, I wait for my dividends to accumulate, and then either add to an existing position, or initiate a new position in an attractively valued stock. While some might say I am missing out on compounding my income while waiting for my dividends to accumulate and buy a stock, I disagree. Re-investing dividends in an overvalued stock is a much worse offense than simply patiently accumulating cash in my book, and deploying it in the best values at the moment. This is another tool that will increase your odds of growing your dividend income stream faster.

Now that I outlined a list of few basic guidelines to follow, I will show how an individual can retire in ten years.

Let’s assume that our individual manages to save $1,000 per month for the next 120 months (10 years). The first month they only manage to save $1000. Let us also assume that our investor invests his or her hard-earned money in dividend stocks yielding 4% that grow distributions by 6% per year. If the distributions are paid quarterly, and are reinvested back in stocks yielding 4% and growing distributions at 6%, our investor will generate $659 per month after 10 years.

Now granted, they only saved $1000 per month for ten years. However, if they saved $2,000 per month instead, their dividend income will rise to $1,309 per month in 10 years. If your dividend crossover point is around $1,300, then after ten years of meticulously saving and investing $2,000 per month, you will be able to retire.

Investing $2,000 per month in dividend paying stocks that yield 4% and grow dividends by 6% per year, can result in monthly incomes exceeding $1,300 per month in 10 years, and $2,000 per month in 13 years.

Your dividend crossover point will be dependent upon the amount you can save, amounts you need, returns you can generate, and time to retirement. By carefully managing those variables, the retiree will be able to devise a proper plan that will help them accomplish their ultimate goal of attaining financial freedom over time.”

Now, while I do not necessarily subscribe to all 5 rules as stated above, I wholeheartedly support all 5 concepts. I add cash to my accounts, buy Safe-Dividend Growers, buy at “Low-Risk Market Entry Opportunities”, hold 20 to 25 securities and reinvest our cash dividends into more shares during those same low-risk entry periods. By engaging in all 5 of those principles, we have supercharged the rate at which our portfolio dividend income has been growing!

The last trading day in April was Friday. Monthly Statements will be out soon. Like a kid at Christmas, I will be tallying up our portfolio dividend income for April, and comparing it to our income in the 4 quarters past. It is very pleasurable to measure the rate at which our income is growing, as well as the rate at which it is accelerating.

Here’s to your successful investing,
Harold F Crowell