Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Bank On It! OZRK

Saturday, May 27, 9:26 pm EST. I recently wrote of UNH, and highly recommended it. I own some. It’s one of my core holdings. The reason is clear and simple… It’s a true safe-dividend grower. It pays an incredibly safe dividend. It’s a truly growing business, and it has been raising its dividend at a prodigious rate, such that years down the road, the yield could easily be in the double-digits for those who are holders of shares now. For me, it’s about as close to a set-it and forget-it holding I can think of.

My next best current idea is the Bank of the Ozarks, symbol, OZRK. Do check it out. Another incredibly safe-dividend grower, it meets my three principal criteria. The chart line of its 12-month, analysts’ estimate of forward-looking earnings estimates is a thing of beauty to behold. The chart of its dividend payout history is an ever-growing stair-step pattern of continual growth. It starts at $.10 a share 10 years ago, and has grown 7-fold, or 600%, to $.70 a share today. And, price reflects the safety and quality here, too; having moved from $7.27 a share 10 years ago, to $45.61 Friday. That’s more than 6-fold, 527% appreciation!

OZRK is paying a $.70 a share, 1.53% yield, but at its rate of annualized growth, will be returning lovely numbers in just a few short years down the road. Never buy on my say-so. Check it out in whatever trusted venue you employ, and ask yourself if it meets your requirements. I’ve taken a position, and may just never let it go. It just might get bought one day, by one of the much larger major national banks. If that should happen, expect it to get taken out at a nice premium to your purchase price.

Analysis I’m looking at indicates that it is on a 21% annual earnings growth path at this time, and a calculation of its value puts it at approximately $74 a share, while it is only currently trading at under $46.

By my calculation, if OZRK earns some $3.30 a share 12 months from now, the dividend only represents a payout of 21% of that projection. The payout ratio of current earnings is 25%… super-safe!

Bank of the Ozarks strikes me as an awesome investment for continued growth of a safe-dividend payout. I want INCOME in my retirement, and I want it growing to me at a very high rate… preferably in the inflation-beating teens. This one looks to keep on doing that for me for life.

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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Taking a Different Tack

Friday, May 26, 9:33 pm EST. I’m not going to quit what I’ve been doing. But, my wife and I had a most interesting thing happen in the past couple of weeks, and it made us have to take a long hard look at our plans, and to possibly move up the target date for attaining unto our retirement income goal. With that in mind, I figured to try another type of search, and I find it most intriguing.

I list every dividend payer in my database by yield, from highest to lowest. I then charted the dividend payout and price with 10 years of data. What I was looking for was the most consistently uptrending dividend payout… on as a high a yielding issue as possible. The search was interesting. The very first issue that looked decent, and seemed a promising buy, was one I had just recently read about elsewhere.

The company is Blackstone, symbol BX. It’s paying $3.48 a share, for a 10.68% yield! Since it looked pretty good, and I’d read of it elsewhere, specifically ‘Doc’ Eifrig’s Income Intelligence newsletter, I took a position.

I’m going to continue my search in this fashion, and see if I can’t find another high-yielder to add besides. My wife may be able, if she should so choose, to retire in as little as 3 1/2 years. Together, we’re determined to replace all her income with an ever-growing stream of portfolio dividend income. Come on along, and do the same!

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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Got Healthcare?

Monday, May 22, 7:49 am EST. Running the search again, after Friday’s close, the very first issue the arises, is once again… UNH, United Healthcare.

This $166 billion behemoth is at the top of the heap of healthcare insurers. It is projected to earn some $9.82 a share 12 months from now, and that looks to account for an 18% growth rate. The P/E on the estimate is a not unreasonable 17.58:1; so, we’re not looking at undervalued here. Price is much closer to a new high, than any recent buy-point low.

It currently pays a 1.45% dividend yield of $2.50 a share, and it’s been raising that handily, and is believed to be able to continue to do so at a lively 17% annual rate. This dividend doubles to shareholders every 4.24 yrs, at a rate like that. We compound the rate of growth to us, by adding more shares, whenever it seems prudent, and the result will be a steady growing income in retirement.

Now I show UNH as having one of the very safest dividends in the universe, as that $2.50 dividend is only 25.46% of its projected earnings.

The repeal and replacement of Obamacare isn’t going to hurt UNH… they’ve pulled out of nearly all the ‘exchanges’ already, as being unprofitable and unworkable, and are dropping the rest in ’18. If any good replacement of Obamacare should come of everything, UNH will only do better, as they should be able to greatly reduce their costs, and sign on many more new applicants. This remains to be seen, but they’re in the saddle to make healthcare insurance work, however the new legislation comes out… cause, if they don’t, we’ll be left with a gov’t single-payer, socialized medical system, and America has made it real clear… they don’t want any part of that! Got UNH?

Have any questions concerning UNH? Don’t hesitate to ask.

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

FWIW

Tuesday, May 16, 7:42 am EST. If you haven’t yet, please read my previous post. Whereas stocks have continued to remain high, and I did say that the timer is not be considered a good top caller; it was also saying risk in the precious metals was low, and that call proved to be prescient, as metals turned upward right from the date of my last post below. I write a metals blog here: https://goldstocktraderblog.wordpress.com/  if you are interested.

I’ll be back again shortly with something on my latest stock research.

Harold

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Is Stock Risk High?

Wednesday May 10, 6:01 am EST. Just doing some of my regular diligence, I see that the conditions I noted one month ago have reversed. Middle of the third week of April, I was saying that risk in stocks was measuring low, while the risk I was measuring in precious metals and their miners was high. As of today, I am registering the very opposite. I am measuring risk as being high in stocks, and is now low in the metals and miners.

I’m thinking that there might be kind of a bit of a reversal of fortunes, as I expect that the metals may once again shine soon, and that stocks are in need of cooling off, taking a breather, and perhaps come back a bit.

Of course, all this remains to be seen, but my old OEXpert 7 Timer seems to do such a tremendous job of making these calls, but especially calling stock market bottoms, for which it was created… so, with that last thought in mind. It’s not the best stock top-caller, nor is it the best gold and silver bottoming caller… but it is saying risk in stocks is high, and risk in metals is low. By making both calls simultaneously, perhaps its accuracy is greater? Let’s watch and we will see!

Harold

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Not a Lot to Say

Saturday, May 6, 8:30 pm EST. I’ve not written much lately. Those that have followed for any length of time know why. After I’ve called a low-risk market entry opportunity, as I did back into the third week of April, when I said that my indicators were saying it would be possible to accumulate shares at lower prices. That silly old market timer was right again, as prices bottomed right around the middle of that third week, and have since lifted-off, and gone on to new highs. I was a buyer on Tuesday the 18th, and Thursday the 20th.

Since then, I noted that our April statements had come out, and we had grown our portfolio dividend income. We are racing toward our retirement income goal between the dividends being paid, the rate at which our safe-dividend growers are raising them, and by means of the addition of new shares of these companies at times when I think I am detecting lower market risk, by means of the OEXpert 7 Market Timer… which has been uncannily accurate for 25 years!

Since that time, stocks have risen well, and the measures of market risk have all gotten quite high. Whenever that happens, I tend to get quieter, and leave things alone for a bit. Hence, fewer posts.

If you have questions, or you want a stock researched… feel free to ask. Even as I type, I realize that I may not have ever written up Jack Henry, JKHY… did I? I’ll check. If I didn’t, I’ll put it up very soon!

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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Who Pays Me?

Tuesday, 9:23 am EST. I last reported on our brand new April portfolio dividend income and the luscious “Pay Increase” we received as a result of solely focusing upon our income, and its growth.

What is the primary, number 1, reason we would do that? Think about this: What is the 1 thing you CAN CONTROL about your investments and portfolio? It is the safe-growth of your portfolio’s dividend income. You can MAKE it to grow, and you can cause it to ONLY GO UP!!! Just stop and think about that. If you’re still trying to grow a nest egg, can you make your portfolio’s value to go up? The market is determining what your portfolio value will be every second the exchanges are open. You have NO control over that. Why are you trying to grow a nest egg in an environment over which you have NO control? And, why are you trying to save and invest all your life, so that you can spend down that nest egg in your retirement? You are NEVER going to want to watch your balance go down… for as long as you live! You are going to HATE to spend down your nest egg, and that will also cause you to wonder if you might not run out of money, before you run out of time!

I’m focusing upon that which I will be most in need of in my retirement… INCOME. I’m investing for it now. I do this by buying shares of only the very Safest-Dividend Growers. I know how to find those stocks, and I only want the very finest among them. Of the thousands of stocks trading on the exchanges, only about 700-800 are good dividend payers. And, not 100 of those are among the very safest-dividend growers. From out of the 100 I can bring up at any time, I can sift them, and find between 20 and 30 that are just the crème-de-la-crème! These are my Safe-Dividend Growers. They pay me a ‘small’ dividend now, that is remarkably safe, and they raise my dividend to me each year, at a crazy rate typically in the teens, which, all by itself, would double my income to me in under 7 years, and more like 5. I retain the dividends, and add more from checking, and buy more shares when I think best, and super-charge our rate of portfolio dividend income growth… right at a goal of our own making. We double our income in well under 4 years, at a compounding growth rate, that will propel, even hurl, us right to our goal by retirement.

Best of all, I can measure our progress monthly toward our goal, and I will KNOW when we have attained it. Can you do any of that?

So, what companies do I presently own, that pays me this safe-dividend income I keep harping about? In alphabetical order: AFG, AOS, BDX, CHD, CSL, CVS, FDS, HRL, JKHY, JNJ, MA, NKE, OZRK, ROL, ROST, SYK, TJX, UGI, UNH, and USPH. Throw in the Money Fund, our parking place, as the interest rate has been moving up. That’s 20 ideas. That’s all anyone needs. You can add more, if you’d like, but keep the whole thing managable.

I have precious metals holdings for ‘insurance’ purposes, and because I believe a genuine bull market in the metals is in the cards, and that I want to trade it, to make, what I believe, might be a ‘killing’, when that launch arrives. It may be silently brewing now. You can check on that here: https://goldstocktraderblog.wordpress.com/

Among the metals holdings, these pay a dividend: GDX, HL, RGLD and SLW. And, we’re speculating with a little that we would not be hurt to lose, but I have a full confidence will return bigly in: IPAY, KWEB and DEM. If you can figure out why, you might want to take a speculative position in them, too. But, I’m not going to write them up. You’ll have to do you’re own diligence on those… really, on anything. Don’t buy something because some retired broker-guy blogs on the web!

Heres’ to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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