Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

So How Was 2017?

Sunday, December 31. It’s hard to do a real head to head comparison; a true apples to apples, but I’ll give it my best.

The S&P 500 rose 19.42% in 2017. The average appreciation for my safe-dividend growers was 25%. I didn’t necessarily hold all of these all year long, but I don’t keep such a record that I could calculate just how much appreciation I actually experienced. But, I can do this: There are presently 17 safe-dividend growers on our portfolio. I’ll list them alphabetically, and how each one did.

AFG rose 23.17%, AOS by 29.42%, AVGO by 45.33%, BMY by 4.86% (which I bought, not as a result of my search, but because they are expected to have a tremendous cancer treatment breakthrough according to research I read and trust), CHD by 13.15%, CVS lost 8.12%, FDS rose by 17.95%, HRL up by 4.54%, JKHY rose 31.74%, KINS by 37.73%, MA rose 46.60%, OZRK lost 7.87%, ROL gained 37.74%, ROST up 22.33%, SNX by 12.34%, SYK rose 29.24%, finally, UNH increased by 37.75%. The average gain for all 17 symbols for 2017 was, as I said, 25%. But I sold some in the year, TJX and UGI come to mind. I didn’t own all of these 17 throughout the entire year… some were acquired at some point within 2017. So, like I stated in the beginning, it’s hard to make a true head-to-head comparison; and I don’t really care to, because “growing a nest-egg” is not at all what I am even about.

The really important thing was how that the average dividend increase among my safe-dividend growers was 24.41%! The Rule of 72 says that growth, at that rate, were it to continue, would double our income to us in 2.95 years! That’s what I get excited about! And, then, we hasten that number and cut the time to double, so as to make it even shorter, by adding more shares each time a lo-risk market entry opportunity make it possible to do so. We actually had a couple of those in 2017.

The OEXpert 7 Market Timer called a lo-risk entry in the middle to later part of April, and again in August. There hasn’t been any other such opportunities since, but I suspect we’ll see one, possibly in the first quarter of 2018. In any case, I’ll wait on the timer to call one.

More later, as the only thing actually matters, is just how much our portfolio dividend income grew in 2017, and how much closer did the year bring us toward our retirement income goal… all else is secondary!

Harold

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Last Trading Day of 2017

Friday, December 29. It’s here. The last trading day of the year. After today’s close, and, hopefully, before Tuesday the 2nd, I’ll commence to report just how well, or poorly, we did in 2017.

I strongly suspect that I may even surprise myself, as it has been a good year for anyone invested in stocks. But, just how good was it for my specific selections and strategy? We’ll find out very soon!

Beyond reporting my results, I’ll also go back to my stock scan, and select those that would appear to be the very best safe-dividend growers for 2018, based on what I see looking back over the previous 10 years.

By early next week, I’ll have received email notification of our December brokerage account statements being available online for review. I love that time each month, when I can learn who paid us, and how much. It just keeps going up, and up, and up! The reason could not be more simple. I am NOT about doing what everyone else tries to do in the stock market. They are all about trying to grow a nest-egg through the price appreciation of their stock holdings. It can be very frustrating, for the one very simple reason that no one can be in control of that process and make their stock share prices go up. They are totally dependent upon market forces outside of themselves to make that happen. They have NO influence on that whatsoever. Not so, when it comes to my goal and strategy…

Share prices may go wherever they will… and they will, because I already know I can’t affect the direction of the prices of any of our stock holdings; not a one of them! But, what I can take hold of, and exercise near absolute control over, is the amount of income my holdings will bring to me. I can select safe-dividend growing stocks, monitor the dividend income they pay me, and its annual increase, and I can re-invest that income until I need it in my retirement. By doing so, and pay close attention to this: I harness the “miracle” of compounding, and make our portfolio dividend income to only go up, and to only grow faster and faster at us! Which would you rather do and have? For me, it was the simplest no-brainer question to answer. The strategy is absolutely beautiful! Why?

Primarily for this one reason: I can establish a retirement income goal; revise, edit or update it at will, and monitor on a regular monthly basis how I am doing at making our portfolio dividend income to grow and race toward our retirement income goal. Then, when the two meet, I know that I can call it quits, and retire with an ever-continually growing portfolio dividend income stream that I can never out-live, and with a portfolio of safe-dividend growing stocks I can leave to anyone or anything I choose!

In 2017, I also added a twist to the strategy, because I believe it just might possibly be better, but there is no research to prove it yet… I have taken subscriptions to a couple of high-yield newsletters that say that by investing in high-yielding CEFs and ETFs, and reinvesting those high yields, and occasionally trading out of, or into, other similar instruments, as they recommend, you can get to your portfolio retirement income goal quicker, and retire with a larger, though slower growing income, in retirement. I believe that I see a wisdom in incorporating both strategies into my overall mix.

Those letters are Contrarian Income Report and CEF Insider from the folks at Contrarian Outlook. I like their philosophy on the markets, because it matches mine. That is: they watch for what they perceive to be lo-risk entry opportunities into cast-off high-yielding securities, and hold, while taking that income, until the low-price advantage they took when buying has gone away… then, recommend you sell at a rather substantial profit, to place the proceeds into another similar beat-up high-yielder. It makes a lot of good sense to me, so I am giving it a go with some of our investable assets.

Look for my year-end wrap-up and review to follow shortly!

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Reader Testimonies

Monday, December 25. I have a couple of wonderful reader testimonies I can share.

One gentleman related to me just a couple of years ago, that following the advice I had given concerning this topic of stock market investing, he explained to me that at one point, his investment grew in value to that place where it became possible for him to pull some profit out and to put a new roof on his family home! I love a good story like that.

Then, just last night, a young man thanked me for my advice given here, as he related to me, and his real estate broker had asked him, how was it that he and his wife, with 2 little ones, had enough money to make an offer and to put a down payment on their first home? He told that broker of me, and how he’d invested in stocks in the manner I prescribed over the these past few recent years, and that was how they had accumulated enough money to become first-time home buyers all by themselves!

I took a call from a young man in his mid-30’s, not 2 weeks ago, who asked me what brokerage firm I had been using and recommended, and that he was now going to begin to follow this investment advice and begin the investment plan of accumulating shares of safe-dividend growers, so as to generate a portfolio dividend income that will continue to grow in retirement at a rate much faster than inflation, and support himself and his bride in their retirement, some 3 more decades down the road. That is one very wise young man! I told him I’ve yet to find a lower cost broker than eOption, which I’ve used for many years.

The year is about to come to a close. There are 4 more trading days in 2017. I’ll issue a full annual report, as is my habit, and report how my safe-dividend growers fared the past 12 months. It’s shaping up to likely be another S&P 500 beating year again this year, too! Merry Christmas to you all, and may God bless you!

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

I Love Being a Lazy Investor

Friday, December 22. The market is marking time around its latest new all-time high. There’s 4 more trading days to go. I’m thinking that after the new year commences, there might be a lot of selling. I could be all wet, but that’s my thinking at this time. I look for a buying opportunity to likely show itself in the first quarter.

I was just doing some calculating. Since I’ve been letting cash accrue, and I’ve been adding cash whenever there’s a checking surplus, I’m presently 57.5% stocks, 11.9% precious metals, and 30.6% cash. That’s a pretty good slug of cash! I’m fine with that. Whenever the next buying opportunity arises, I’ll add a lot of shares, and grow our portfolio dividend income.

Right after the first of the year, I’ll calculate their appreciation vs. the 500, and the rate at which my safe-dividend growers raised our “pay” to us. Right after that, our December statements will become available. I’m always up for that!

I owe you, my readers, a run through my search to see what the very best safe-dividend growers are. It’s been a long time, too long, since I last ran the search. I’ll get that soon.

I need to update the timer. I haven’t inputted data for an entire month! I’m sorry. But, I got all the front entry area painted… without falling off a ladder and killing myself. My point is so simple. As an investor, I can take it slow and easy. I’m growing a portfolio dividend income, not a nest egg. I’m pretty much in control. I’m making this happen. It happens pretty much all by itself. You just buy the safe-dividend growing kind of stocks, and, over time, as time is the hero of the plot, the rest takes care of itself. Don’t take the dividends and spend them… reinvest them into more shares, that they, too, might begin to earn for you.

Okay, running my search, those with the best 10-year EPS lines are: NVO, CTSH, AOS, ROL, ACN, TSM, CBOE, UNH, JKHY,TSN, LRCX, CVGW, INTU, AVGO, ROST, OZRK, FNBG, ICE, SNX, AFG, LOGM, KINS, STZ, TJX, HII and SYK. That’s a good list!

Now, those having the best historical dividend payout line from among the above: AOS, ROL, CBOE, UNH, JKHY, TSN, AVGO, ROST, ICE, SNX, AFG, KINS, STZ, HII and SYK.

I own from out of those: AOS, ROL, UNH, JKHY, AVGO, ROST, SNX, AFG, KINS and SYK. These are among the very finest corporations in all the world! More later… I’ve got to go.

Harold

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

I’m Just Sayin’…

Tuesday, December 19. I’ve seen the stock market like this before. My last recollection was the ’95/’96 period. It was an incredible time! I’m not even going to look into this to check it out, but… I’m of a couple of opinions here.

One, the tax reform bill passes, which is the NEWS that this market gets sold on… or, two, right after the new year starts, we sell off, because traders love to pay their cap gains tax in April of the following year, rather than April of this next year.

Folks have experienced a lot of cap gains this year. They’d rather defer taxation until April of ’19. They do that by selling after January 1 of ’18.

But, we’ve run up so well, that IF the Tax Reform Bill passes today, the news will immediately hit the wire, and it might be just the ‘news’ that results in the commencement of selling, since it’s been this hope and anticipation that caused it to run up in the first place.

But, never you worry. If it passes, and it almost certainly will, it’s going to unleash the American economic engine, and result in truly expansive growth and profit. The markets correct, but will go higher! That’s my story, and I’m stickin’ to it! That is, until it proves me to be utter clueless… again! Hahaha

Harold

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

When This Bull Market Ends…

Thursday, December 14. When this bull market ends, expect a number of things to be almost certainly true at that time. One thing will be that the economically sensitive Dow Jones Transportation Average will probably have become far-underperforming of the rest of the market. It’s usually looked at in relation to what the Dow Jones Industrials are doing. In fact, for several months recently, the transports had begun to do that, and then, in mid-November, it reversed course, shot up, and also began hitting new highs along with the rest of the market.

A second indicator to keep your eyes open for, is for the NASDAQ to begin to run away from the rest of the market., but that isn’t happening either. The DOW 30 has been outperforming the NASDAQ over the past 6 months. A couple of industry groups to really keep an eye on in this regard, would be the semiconductors and biotechnology. History shows that these have gone bonkers toward the very end of a modern era bull market… and, that’s not begun to happen yet either.

Could cryptocurrencies be sucking all that oxygen up? They could be, but that sector is still so small; and so little money, in the bigger picture of things, has even yet gone there. But, watch for that. If it gets to that place where everyone has to get in on it, and prices multiply madly over what they are now, then that would be a pretty good sign. It already does look like that, but, again, there really is relatively little involvement there. Less than 1% of investors, or investment dollars have wandered over there, and none of mine has… yet, though my oldest keeps pushing me to.

These are just a couple or three good things to be aware of, so that if these things should happen, and they likely all will, you can be quite sure that the end is near, and plan your exit… and, then, for heaven’s sake, work your plan! Stop losses under your positions will be in order, and if any are hit, sell and park some cash.

Do you have any metals? It would appear that now would be an excellent time to acquire some for ‘insurance’ purposes, as gold and silver are genuine, tangible stores of real value. Accumulating a minimum of a 5% position right in here would be a very prudent thing to do. More later………

Harold

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Gettin’ Rich… Doin’ Nuthin’!!!

Wednesday, December 13. It’s been a few weeks since I looked into what’s been coming my way from my safe-dividend growers… particularly dividend increase ‘pay raises’. I just did, and December is often a very good month, but this goes well beyond very good!

First, I have 18 safe-dividend growers in my portfolio. They are: AFG, AOS, AVGO, BMY, CHD, CVS, FDS, HRL, JKHY, KINS, MA, OZRK, ROL, ROST, SNX, SYK, UGI and UNH. These have appreciated, on average, since the beginning of the year an astounding 24.48%! But, and this is far more important to me… My dividends have been raised by 17 of the 18 listed holdings. Here, just in the past month, I’ve received 4 ‘pay raises’!

Hormel raised from $.68 to $.75 for a 10.3% raise. That’s decent. MasterCard has raised from $.88 to $1.00 for a 13.7% increase. That’s better. Avago (Broadcom) has raised me from $4.08 to an even $7.00 for a 71.57% increase!!! Wow! That’s totally awesome!!! Stryker has also given me a raise, from $1.70 to $1.88. This is a 10.59% ‘pay raise’. I’ll take it!

Just how important is this? Let me tell you… The average dividend increase ‘pay raise’ from 17 of my 18 holdings, (and the 18th will likely raise very soon), has been from $1.26 to $1.54 a share. That is a very real… ready for this now? My pay for passively holding these safe-dividend growers has been raised to me by 22.22%!

Who gets their pay raised like that for doing nothing?!?!? I do… that’s who!!! I am getting rich, as an investor, for pretty much doing nothing! I don’t care what traders are doing. I do so much less than they do, and I sleep so very well at night.

I’m excited, too, because I get to share these results with my investment ‘club’ members tomorrow night during our monthly meeting!

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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