Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Are We Headed Up… or Down?

Sunday, April 29. Just a brief note, but this is important. There’s a great deal of concern about the market right now. Maybe you’re feeling it, too. Many are saying that we are right now in that transition phase, where we are about to head into a Bear Market.

I don’t know, and I’m currently not of that persuasion. Here’s just one of those reasons why: “There are reasons for optimism…

The U.S. economy continues to grind higher. The tax and regulatory environment is as good as it has been in years. And corporate earnings have been solid.

Meanwhile, several notable measures of investor sentiment are at extremes that typically coincide with stock market bottoms, rather than tops

For example, the Conference Board – which publishes several widely followed economic indicators – recently released the April edition of its Consumer Confidence Survey. It showed Americans have turned net bearish on stocks for the first time since the November 2016 election.

According to the report, more Americans now expect stocks to fall over the next 12 months than expect them to rise. This may not sound noteworthy, but this type of negative reading is rare. Since the end of the financial crisis, virtually every other similar occurrence has marked a bottom in stocks.”

I’ve got another, too. Let me find that one, and get it to you Monday. What these are saying is that the current concerns are more likely evidence this is opportunity, and not any time to be panicky.

Harold

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Maverick?

Saturday, April 28, 9:23 am EST. I’m my own man, and my own thinker. I’ve been doing this since November of ’84, for 33 1/2 years now. I started out knowing nothing, and just never stopped reading, learning and growing. I don’t do anything now like what I started out doing then. No need to review all the years of history. Let’s just say, I grew, paid my ‘tuition’ and matured, just like I’ve heard so many others have done.

In the course of all those years, I began to pay less and less attention to others, and began to formulate my own ideas and opinions. I’m to the place now, that I really pay next to no attention to anyone else at all. I have my own “box of tools,” and I rely very heavily on them… more so than anything else that comes my way. All else is now taken with a grain of salt, but often not even taken… at all. I’ve become something of a maverick.

First, I’m totally out of the idea of even attempting to grow a nest egg, in competition with literally just about every other soul that invests or trades on Wall Street. They can have that entire realm all to themselves. I do not care. In my retirement, I’m not going to be even the least bit interested in spending down some ‘nest egg.’ In my retirement, I want INCOME; and an ever-growing stream of it at that!

I invest for retirement income. My wife and I have a retirement income goal. I have my Soc. Sec. and IRA, and she will have her pension and her IRA, as well as a couple of other retirement related things set-up through her employment over the years. When she retires, her income will be ‘altered,’ shall we say. It will be considerably less than what she brings home from work now. I’m already retired, and have been nearly 3 years already (and, how I am loving it, too!).

Our goal, in retirement, is to literally replace every bit of our take-home with dividend income that grows at a rate that at least meets real inflation, or better, of course, beats it.

Four things happen when you make income your investment goal, as we have. First, it’s so much easier to establish an investment goal. After considering your retirement income from all other sources; generate enough income from investments to close any existing gap, and meet that goal! Second, you would be shocked to learn how much less you will need to amass in your “nest egg” if you seek to invest for the income you will need. It’s not anywhere near the figure the ‘pros’ tell you that you will need to acquire by retirement age, as a nest-egg. But third, and best, by investing for income, and tracking it carefully, as I have advocated, you measure your progress toward your goal, and you can pretty much take total charge of your effort, and make your portfolio dividend income to only go up, quarter-over-quarter, and year-over-year. You’re in charge! You’re making this happen. You cannot make a nest-egg appreciate in size. The market is going to tell you everyday what it’s doing to you! No thanks. Finally, we won’t be spending our nest-egg down, but only taking out the portfolio dividend income. The principle remains to continue to produce income, and we get to leave the entire portfolio as a legacy to our 6 children and 6 grandchildren. Don’t be that fool trying to spend your last penny… on your last day here on earth.

If you’ve read for any time, you now that I revel in reporting my monthly brokerage statements, and telling of how our portfolio dividend income has been growing. The growth has been truly dramatic! As I currently measure it, it appears that we are now at 91.5% of the way to our goal.

The most exciting and fascinating aspect of all this has been that all this time I was aiming at an income goal totally based upon our total current take-home. But, beginning only 1 year ago, I began to very carefully commence to track our actual spending. We’ve always lived beneath our means. We have dispensed with all indebtedness, including the mortgage, and we have been sending to brokerage, anything in excess of our emergency fund limit in checking. Our current retirement plan for income already meets all that we currently spend! The amount we are seeking to generate from dividends will serve to put us right back into that situation we know now, where we will again be living beneath our means, and deriving more income than we are currently spending. It feels good, real good, to be where we are right now. Where are you at? We’re on a glide path to what appears to be a very soft and safe retirement landing!

O, if only young people would commence to do what I am doing now… O, if only I’d known and started doing this… in November of 1984!!!

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Pushback!

Thursday, April 26. I’m getting some pushback from readers. I don’t mind at all. I appreciate their thoughts and reasoning. I just disagree is all.

The market is spooked, and it’s about to enter that time year, when the popular old saying, Sell in May and go away is coming upon us. I understand the reasons some believe this bull market is now dying, and it’s just a matter of a little more time before we turn over, and a new bear market commences. Maybe it’s because of my overly optimistic nature, and it’s blinded me, but I don’t believe that. I don’t believe the bull market is dead.

I have eyes, and I can see, but I have my own reasons for believing this old bear still has life in it. The greatest fear right now is of rising interest rates. The 10-year has hit 3.00%. I say, yeh, so? 3% is still low. It’s just not as artificially low as it had been for a long time. And, the last COT report had a record high number of futures traders betting on still higher rates, with a number of contracts that would typically say they on the wrong side of this call, and that rates are more likely to head down, not up. Also, when Toys’R Us folded just a while back, it was because they were not permitted refinancing, and so they filed for bankruptcy. Don’t look now, but there is a tidal wave of refinance deals that are needed to be applied for by an incredible number of overly-leveraged companies coming right at us, and there is going to be a frightening number of other denials and bankruptcies making news in short order… don’t believe or bet on rates going up further. I believe they will not.

Another thing of keen interest, is how many investors are already spooked into believing this bull is dead… reports of professional money managers, and of individual investors, are saying that a great many have already cut back, or gotten out, so that their commitment to equities is historically low… in such a manner as has never characterized a market top before! I believe that they are mistaken, and that there will be a new rush of money back into stocks.

Characteristic signs of a market top having to do with the charts of things like the A/D Line, Bank share prices, the Dow Transports, Small Cap Indexes and the Equally Weighted 500 Index don’t show the divergences that typically and historically have coincided with the market tops of the past. Maybe they won’t this time… but, I don’t believe that either.

I’ve been a timer for nearly 3 decades, and here’s one thing I do know… identifying and calling a stock market top is just about the hardest thing there is. I’ve never been able to do it before, and I may very have just recently missed it already. I’ve always been wildly successful at calling the lows, which I label lo-risk market entry opportunities. And, I believe that all we are in the process of doing right about now, is possibly setting up for another opportunity to put even more cash to work in anticipation of still further price gains out there ahead of us. Anyway, that’s what I currently believe. I could be wrong…

One thing I absolutely have correct is that I’ve been growing our portfolio dividend income each quarter, and as April winds down, and the next monthly brokerage statements become available, in about another week, I’m going to be reporting RECORD income that will put us right at about 90% of the way to our retirement income goal. And, the liklihood that we will hit our retirement income target of 100% of our current net takehome is looming ever closer… and may be hit within another year!

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Wow! Just when I thought I wouldn’t need another indicator that a bear market is not upon us… I see this headline on the MSN Money site… “Big bear market lasting several months appears to have begun.” The picture is that of a floor trader holding his face in his hands! Now, that, right there, is FUNNY. First, when have you ever seen a headline announcing a bear market before it’s actually begun? Has there ever been a bell rung at the top? Second, who thinks that a bear market has only ever lasted ‘several months’? Not me. They’re typically a year and half or more.

I’m going contrarian with this one…I’m calling BS on that headline. I don’t believe it. Now, let’s see who gets this one right. I certainly could be mistaken, but at this time, I certainly don’t think so. If anything, my resolve has just been strengthened by MSN.

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Time to Look for Another Opportunity?

Tuesday, April 24, 8:04 am EST. I’m not certain, but I need to look things over again. Could it be that we are being given yet another opportunity to buy in relatively cheap, while others are scared?

Updating the timer, and looking things over. I don’t see where we are yet near a place where we should consider deploying more cash just yet. However, what I do see is what would typically be interpreted as a tremendously bullish wedge pattern forming. This takes place when an area of support is being put in multiple times at about the very same place, creating a line or base of flat support on the one hand, while at the same time, each instance in which the market reverses, and goes up, it keeps getting knocked down from a lower price level of overhead resistance.

Drawing a line to connect the lows, shows the flat base, while drawing a line which connects each subsequent top slopes downward, from left to right on the chart, creating a wedge shape… sort of like a door stop. This is a Bullish Wedge formation.

While it’s been settling back, and headed back down toward previous support… If we can identify it, and should enough technical indicators say risk is wrung out, we just might get another opportunity to step up and to accumulate yet some more shares.

My bigger picture take is that this market still has time and room to go… I don’t see this Bull Market, now more than 9 years old, as being over yet. I could certainly be mistaken, but there are typically some clues as to when that will take place… and I’m not aware that any of them are saying it’s over… yet!

Harold

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Is This the Beginning of the Next Big Run Up?

Wednesday, April 18, 7:47 am EST. I like charts, and I use them to help me find investments and to time the market. There’s one kind of chart I’ve never studied and used, call Point & Figure Charts, that employ a bunch of X’s and O’s.

Well, in any case, there is this fellow I have known of for many years, named John Murphy. You can look him up. And, his most recent email out to subscribers to his stockcharts.com site had of few of these P&F charts in it, and according to his understanding of what he thinks they are saying to him, this stock market is possibly on the verge of another great rally surge forward!

That certainly could be. It shows some sign and evidence of that to me, though I never try to call such moves. If you’ve read my work for any length of time at all, you know that I claim to be able to call the market turns, from when it appears to be ending a decline, and is on the verge of reversing back to the upside. You only need to scroll down to posts dated near the end of March, and start reading forward toward today’s date to know that I practically ‘pounded the table’ to tell you to be a buyer right around the most recent market bottom. And, that wasn’t just some rhetoric I was employing either, as I personally injected many thousands of our own investment dollars into the acquisition of more shares of nearly all our present holdings, on 4 different dates a couple and three weeks back.

So, I write this post to tell you this… IF John is correct, and we’re about to surge forward in a new stock market rally into new high territory once again, then, it’s not at all too late to be a buyer of shares in safe-dividend growing stocks. I’ll do what I can to post such a list a.s.a.p.

Harold

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Ya Gotta Love It!

Saturday, April 14. Was updating my Excel files on our portfolio holdings. I saw that there was a dividend increase I had not yet recorded! I love it when that happens! Ya gotta love it!

I show that one of my perennial favorites, Ross Stores, symbol ROST, had raised our “pay” for holding their shares, from $.64 a share, to $.90 a share. That $.26 a share increase represents to us a 40.63% “Pay Raise”!!! Who else gets 40% raises in their “pay,” hmmmm? Only holders of the very safest-dividend growers, that’s who! We do, that’s who.

But, and this is where the whole system of investing in the very finest companies in the world, that safely grow their earnings, and raise their dividends by similar amounts, gets so exciting! It is this: One year ago, these same companies were paying to us an average of $1.20 per share, but today, they are now paying us $1.40 a share, on average. This translates into this stat… the $.20 per share average increase in our portfolio dividend income; our average of all “pay raises” for the past year, resulted in a very real dividend income growth of 16.67%. Our portfolio dividend income, just from our safe-dividend growers alone, was raised to us by an average of nearly 17%.

This is what this potentially means to us… According to the “Rule of 72,” were these same companies to continue growing and raising to us, as they have done in this past year, would result in a doubling of their income to us in 4.32 years! That’s a DOUBLING of our income in just 4 years and 4 months… IF we do nothing more at all to raise that income ourselves. And, how can we cause our own portfolio dividend income to rise even faster than it already is? We add MORE shares during lo-risk market entry opportunities, that ‘s how! And, we currently sport the cash to do that, too! But, we’ll bide our time. We’re patient.

And, now, the really big news, at least for my wife and me… As we currently measure our progress toward our retirement income goal, based upon that portfolio dividend income that we believe that we can expect to receive, looking ahead for the next 12 months… we think we are now, get this, 89% of the way to our goal… 89%!!! You don’t think that excites us… O, yes, it does!!! We appear to be well on our way, my friends.

Have you started yet? How far along have you come already? We started just 7 years ago, and now look where we are? We’re almost there! We’re “rounding the last bend, and are headed into the final stretch.” We can see the finish line, and we are going to arrive at it, in a very great liklihood, within the next 12 months, or so.

Come along with us, and see if we don’t!

Here’s to your successful investing, too!
Harold F Crowell

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Today Was Awesome!

Tuesday, April 10, 9:33 pm EST. Markets shot up. I had accumulated shares in recent days, during all this wild volatility. I added just a little bit more today, so as to ‘square up’ a few positions, and was advised to sell one. The net result, was a slightly higher percentage of our retirement income goal was reached. We’re at 87.8% as of today. That excites me so much!

I could easily just plow some more cash in now, and take it over the top, if I wanted to, but I just don’t roll that way. I’m willing to bide my time, and let the market come back to me again, sometime, later on in the future. I’m pleased with what I have accomplished to this point, and now I just want to enjoy that for a bit.

Our portfolio has also now attained unto a new high in value, but, as I always remind myself, that is not our goal. If our value increases, so much the better, but what we really want to experience is, an ever-growing stream of portfolio dividend income! Don’t you?

Harold

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