Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Rally, Rally, Rally!

Tuesday, September 19, 12:58 pm EST. I haven’t posted since 9/5. I don’t post regularly when the market is rallying. I just go along and enjoy the ride! I titled my posts of 7/10 “It Appears to be That Time,” and 7/11, “It’s Still Looking Like That Time.” What was I talking about back then? I was saying it looked like the time to be a buyer, and so it was! I did some buying at that time. I’m not a buyer now.

I buy when stock market risk is low, which comes after the market has been selling off for a while. I do not buy into an old rally, when the technical indicators are signaling to me risk is high, which is where this market is at now. I’ve participated in this rally. I’ve profited well, but, then, again, I’m not even in this game for capital appreciation. I invest for the purpose of steadily and safely growing our portfolio dividend income, and our portfolio dividend income is doing just that.

Do I like stock market rallies? I do, but they get in the way of what I am always trying to accomplish, as rising stock prices decrease the dividend yield of any issue I am considering buying. Only as stock prices decline, do stock dividend yields rise, and that is when I want to identify the best among the safe-dividend growers, and accumulate more shares of them.

I’m not in a contest to “beat the market.” That is a fool’s errand! I have a retirement income goal I need to meet. If by my strategy, I attain unto our own personal retirement income goal, what difference would it mean to have “beaten the market”? Are you crazy? Determine what your own retirement income goal is, and invest for the purposes of meeting your own personal retirement income goal, and let the rest do whatever it is they think they need to do to “beat the market.” The heck with that!

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

The Ever-Growing Income Stream!

Tuesday, September 5, 8:46 pm EST. Our brokerage statements became available over the weekend, and I recorded all our dividend income paid to us in August, and once again… It is UP!!!

It was higher than May, higher than February, higher than last November, and higher than August of last year. It was up, up, up! Just in this year, and only looking back to May, we caused our portfolio dividend income to increase by 29.13%. And, then, going back only to February, amazing as this sounds, it’s ahead by 143%.

But, and here’s the real matter. We have set a retirement income goal, and our presently anticipated dividend income, looking forward over the next 12 months, puts us at 27.83% of the way to our goal. We’ve 72.17% more to go! But, the rate at which we are growing our income keeps accelerating! And, by the time my wife expects to retire, we have every good reason to believe that we will have attained unto our goal.

Have you set a goal? Are you measuring your results? Are you making your portfolio dividend income to only go up? Every one of our safe-dividend growers has given us a “pay raise” in the past 12 months. And, every time a lo-risk market entry opportunity arises, we add more shares to our holdings. This Fall may provide another great opportunity. I trust my timer will call it when it does. I’ve lots of cash to put to work!

Harold F Crowell

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Best Stock Investments

Wednesday, August 30, 8:07 am EST. I was asked yesterday if I would conduct my search again to see what was looking best, as far as their EPS line, Dividend Payout lines, and price had been doing. I agreed that it had been awhile, and that I would do that very soon… so, here it is!

Let’s do this… so that you will have as many symbols as possible so as to conduct whatever research you might care to do on your own, let me first list all those beauties having the very finest 10-year EPS lines. They would be these: CTSH, ROL, AOS, MPWR, UNH, AVGO, ROST, NTES, ANTM, CMCSA, TXRH, LOGM, KINS, APH, DPZ, ICE, G, SNX, CBOE, ADS, PRI, STZ, HII, and LII. There are 24 candidates there. I own ROL, AOS, UNH, AVGO, ROST and SNX among those.

Now, let me go through them again, this time, looking at their historical dividend payout lines for the past 10 years. The very best looking dividend payout lines, having a stair-step pattern of ever-growing dividend payouts are these: ROL, AOS, JKHY, UNH, AVGO, ROST, CMCSA, AFG, KINS, APH, DPZ, ICE, LFUS, EL, NOC, TSN, EVR, LRCX, SNX, AON, STZ, HII and LII. There are 23 here, and of these, I presently hold: ROL, AOS, JKHY, UNH, AVGO, ROST, AFG and SNX.

So, what’s the overlap? That is, which issues find themselves on both lists? These do: ROL, AOS, UNH, AVGO, ROST, CMCSA, KINS, APH, DPZ, ICE, SNX, STZ, HII and LII. Here are 14 excellent candidates for potential buying and holding for the long term. I own 6 of them already: ROL, AOS, UNH, AVGO, ROST and SNX.

I presently hold, from out of previous similar searches, the following 21 safe-dividend growers: UNH, AVGO, MA, AFG, OZRK, ROST, SNX, AOS, ROL, JNJ, JKHY, TJX, SYK, BDX, HRL, CHD, NKE, UGI, CSL, FDS and CVS.

If I were to pass judgment today, as to what, among those, I would keep or jettison, I would keep: UNH, MA, BDX, ROL, AFG, ROST, AVGO, SNX, SYK, AOS and CHD.

Those I am not so enamored with at this time, and am watching more closely, with an eye to possibly letting go in the future, would be these: UGI, JKHY, TJX, NKE, HRL, JNJ, CSL, OZRK, FDS and CVS.

The one most in danger of going over the side? Hmmm, I’m thinking maybe CSL.

What would I most like to add? KINS, and, or, HII. Maybe both! So, today, I’m selling CSL in order to buy KINS.

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

How Much is Enough?

August 28. I was asked that the other day… How much is enough? I know this one thing, for sure… Much wants more! When asked how much the wealthy wanted, their most common answer was… Just a little bit more. I actually know that feeling. I have felt it, too. I’m doin’ alright, but… I’d like a little more.

Well, I have a real answer to the question. How much do you live on now? Is it enough? In our case, it is. How ’bout yours? Need more? Got enough coming in? My point is, and it’s always been my 5th Principle of Successful Stock Market Investing… Have a GOAL!

Our personal goal is not like those goals financial or retirement planners set with their clients. They usually assess their clients situation, and then explain how that they can live on 80%, or 75% or… if it’s not looking too very good, even as little as 60% of their present income while employed.

I asked my wife some time ago, “Honey, how are we doing on our current income? Is it enough?” And, she and I both agreed that we were bringing home enough. That, right there, became our goal. Let’s replace 100% of our present working income for our retirement! If it wasn’t possible to attain unto, it is still a most worthy goal. I don’t want to have to live on less, if I do not have to!

So, knowing what our current total take-home is, we’ve established that as our goal. Then, we figured out what we would have coming in. She’ll have her pension, with NO cola’s. I already take my Soc. Sec. which for all intents and purposes, might as well be considered as not being cola’d. Beyond that, we have our portfolio of investments, and we’re growing the dividend income within it.

When doing our calculations, we saw that we would need to add an extra “X” amount per month in order to reach our goal. By means of our safe-dividend growing stocks, we are now 28.58% of the way to making that goal. And, we are moving toward it very rapidly!

We’re about to end another month on Thursday. A few days after that, I will receive email notification that our monthly account statements will be available for viewing. Every time they do, I go to each of the 4 statements and record in an Excel file which companies paid us that month and how much they paid us. I then do the simple calculations so as to determine how much we had caused our portfolio dividend income to grow over the past 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. I report some of those numbers each month to you. It’s truly like having 12 more Christmas’ each year, just for me!

If you would like a copy of that Excel file for your own record-keeping purposes… just ask me. Also, few platforms have a means of recording what your dividend is, and add your dividend income for you. I’ve created an Excel file for the purpose of keeping my focus on dividend income from each of our holdings, as well. If you would like a copy of an Excel file for your own use, I’ll gladly send it to you. Please, just ask. It is my privilege to be of a help to you. May God bless you all.

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Lucky? Smart? Blessed?

Tuesday, August 15, 9:23 am EST. I have been sitting easy all year long. Stocks have been up, they started to get volatile, and they’ve been in recovery, and on to new highs again. Precious metals started the year upward, but have been going up and down, sideways pretty much since, and are getting hammered just today, as stocks are launching again.

None of this has hardly affected me at all, and yet, you read how that I have been growing our portfolio dividend income at an incredible pace. What is it that I am doing?

I’m prepared for about any scenario right now. It works just like this. I have stocks. 57% of our investable assets are in stocks, but that includes whatever gold and silver mining stocks we hold, too. But, we’ve actual physical metals amounting to another 13% of our holdings. Finally, we are 30% in cash, as we have been letting dividends accrue, and adding as much monthly, over our emergency fund balance requires, to our money funds. We’re very close to new all-time high total account value, but that is relatively immaterial to us, as we are so very much about the growth of our portfolio dividend income, and we are making that to grow rapidly.

Here’s my point: I was not trying to strike some kind of a balance, or become market neutral, but in the midst of all the hoopla this year, between stocks and risk, and the metals and risk-off… each day the stocks have been declining, the metals were rising, and whenever the stocks were coming back, the metals were selling off… and the difference in the total value of our accounts together has remained virtually unchanged! I seem to have attained unto a virtual market neutrality with our current asset allocation.

What I am wanting to accomplish in the remainder of this year, however, is to deploy much of our cash into one asset, or the other, as either one, or perhaps both, should give us a lo-risk opportunity to accumulate more of that asset class. I buy stock for long-term investment purposes. I’ve been trading the precious metals miners for appreciation, when there might be a real good economic/financial reason to do so… because this entire world economic system has been so corrupted, and near to breaking, due to the manipulations of the central banks of the worlds’ nations, that when the cows come home, and the chickens come to roost… it’s going to get very bad, and the metals are our insurance, and will be our financial deliverance in that day.

I would tell anyone… buy safe-dividend growing stocks of the very kind I write about here. Buy, also, some precious metals, as your hedge, your insurance, your safety blanket, but also keep accruing cash, and keep building up your balance, so as to take action, and put some to work, whenever opportunity shows itself. It’s been quiet since I called for buying in the metals and in the stocks last month. But, you can take this to the bank, before this year is out, we will almost certainly again, have another opportunity to become buyers, of one, or the other, so as to bolster our own balance sheet. This is no time to be a buyer of either right now, so sit tight, be patient, and wait. It will come. It always does! I know that I am blessed.

Harold

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Not Long?

Saturday, August 12. I’m a bit surprised. I updated the timer with all the missing back data, as I had said that I would, and as I had last said… the market reaching new highs, had also put all of the indicators into a measure of extreme risk. The last lo-risk opportunity being mid-July, which I identified, and made some purchases at that time.

Here’s that thing which is of keen interest to me: Some of the indicators had already begun to turn down some time back, and… are already halfway, or more, ‘home.’ What do I make of that? I’d say that this may be a correction only short and shallow! It leads me to believe that the price support I see only a couple or three % away is more likely to hold, than not, to my way of looking at these indicators.

Let’s let things play out some more, going forward. I’ll commence to updating the timer regularly, and let’s see if we can’t nail the next lo-risk market entry opportunity within just the next couple or three weeks maybe.

I’ve got money fund cash I’d like to put to work.

Harold

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Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Timing Update

Tuesday, August 8, 8:47 pm EST. I’ll be updating the timer tomorrow, but I don’t expect anything, but overbought extremes in the technical measures of market risk. That said, today’s market price action gave some pretty traditional indication of having just put in a near-term market top. If so, we might be able to expect the start of a stock market ‘correction’ in prices, if the interpretation of today’s action is statistically indicative of what is to typically follow after that kind of price action we saw today. Let’s see if we begin to start down for awhile, in such a manner that we enter into the somewhat typical later Summer and Fall market swoon that has so frequently set up for the great year-end rallies that seem to have been so common in recent years.

When I update the OEXpert 7 Timer, I’ll report on its status.

Harold

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