Taking time to examine the charts of the Top 100 for Dividend Safety, I have one particular edge. I have access to the most privileged information generated by Wall Street: The “Analyst’s Consensus of Forward-Looking Earnings Estimates” for 1-year out. This data comes to me via Thomson-Reuters.
Charting at least 10 years of price and this EPS data, I simply look for the smoothest, upwardly-trending EPS data over time. My reasoning is simple and straight-forward. All kinds of economic circumstances have faced us over the past decade, including the dreaded GFC (the global financial crisis) of 2008 and ’09. But those companies least affected by such external factors are more capable of forging their own destiny, or, as I like to call it… ‘write their own check‘.
Since these pay a dividend, and they have the smoother, more consistent EPS line, I then look at the same ten years of their actual dividend payout history. I’m looking for the most consistent stair-step pattern of dividend payout, that gets raised annually, at a very nice rate somewhere close to, or actually in the double-digits, resulting in a very fast rate of dividend income growth; a growth rate that handily beats inflation.
With these things in mind, of The Top 100 Safest-Dividend Growers, I find these 40, or so, to have the more attractive EPS lines. They are: JNJ, TSM, CSL, NKE, NTES, TTC, UNH, ACN, AOS, JKHY, ROL, TJX, CHD, EFX, SYK, INTU, NOC, UGI, TSCO, STZ and STZB, BDX, AFG, HRL, OZRK, SBUX, OTEX, HD, INGR, CMCSA, COST, LII, NDAQ, AON, AVGO, WBA, STJ, CVS, BEAV and RGA.
This would be a starting off point for your own search, if you care to. I’ll look at all these again, and I will next note all those that had the ‘best-looking’ dividend payout charts. These would be the most desirable of the safe-dividend growers.
Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell