Having inputted all the necessary data into my OEXpert & Stock Market Timer, there are 7 indicators within it. What are they saying at this time?
Well, when I last reported on the timing indicators, I was saying that they had been in decline, were getting close to signaling, and that it seemed obvious to me that they were aiming right at a settlement of the election results of the 8th. Turns out that was just about perfect. Of course, there was a bit of a fly in that ointment, when James Comey of the FBI made his announcement the Sunday before, which set the stock market off on Monday instead.
The price of the OEX, S&P 100, index is almost at its upper trading band already, which would be an indication of high risk, but until it does, I call risk by that measure, moderate or medium.
F1 has exceeded its own upper band, and is at 65. Being above 60, that’s high risk.
F2 has risen to its own zero line, but would need to reach 15 to be high risk, so, for now, it’s giving a moderate, or medium risk signal.
F3 is already up to 88, and is measuring high risk.
F4 is at 18, and on its scale is in the medium risk range, and will signal high risk should it exceed 25.
F5 is risen to 73. It’s also a medium risk measure, but will flip into high risk above 80. It’s been headed there quickly.
F6 has rocketed from off of zero, to already read 86, and high risk.
Between all 7 of these, it’s easy to see that the aggregate measure of them all is telling us that stock market risk is having 4 at medium, and 3 at high. We have medium to high risk, and it has been rising up to this point in time.
Other sources, such as the standard technical measure of a 9-day RSI is at 75, which is high.
I would not be a buyer at these levels, I’d wait for a pull-back, or correction, of this week and half long rally that is behind us. Even now, some profit-taking and a definite slowing of any momentum is happening now, and usually signals to wait.
Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell