Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Market Timing Alert Update!

I have promised 2 new blogs. One is for far smarter and safer investing in corporate bonds, which is here: https://corporatebondinvesting.wordpress.com/

 

And, the other will be a market timing blog, which I have yet to start. BUT, because opportunity is beginning to knock even now, in the stock market, I want to apprise you of that here, before I start the new market timing blog.

I employ as many as a Baker’s Dozen of technical stock market timing tools. I have used some of these for more than 20 years! They are good… very good! Where I am known, on the Pirate’s Cove Investors Forum, my work is respected and revered there. I used to be mocked and ridiculed by the others there, until my calls kept coming true.

I don’t always call the exact bottom, or the very day… but, many times, I actually have!

My tools are, as I like to call them, measures of market risk. When the markets are in decline, stock market risk is being wrung out of them. I measure that risk, until my measures say that risk is low. At which point, I announce it, and typically a market reversal to the upside ensures very shortly thereafter.

It’s not that I am any smarter than the next fellow. I’ve just found some tools, over time, that have worked rather well.

Let me update you on what I am presently seeing. First of all, I believe that everything is pointing right at next Tuesday! I think that election angst is what has been taking this market down. I think that once a determination has been made Tuesday evening, that a relief rally is likely to commence.

I can’t know this, of course, but everything appears to be pointing at that time frame, and that would be thee event that could easily turn the market.

In a program called VectorVest, which I have used consistently since the summer of ’02, I find 4 useful indicators within its own market timing function.

One of these is the very common, and can be found in numerous places… RSI, or the Relative Strength Index. The program has RSI within it, and it presently sits in oversold territory, under 30, at a reading of 19. This indicator says that risk is largely gone now.

But then, this program has at least 3 proprietary market timing indicators within itself, that are totally unique to this program. These do not often reach oversold extremes, but when they do, they are typically very accurate and useful. Of those 3, one has just landed on the very threshold of when it signals. And, so, it has just entered the camp of signaling for me. The other 2 could easily do so today, Monday, or during Tuesday… or, so, I fully believe. And, if they should, I will post it here! So, I have 4 here… 2 are signaling, and the other 2 are just now getting close, which they do not often do!

Then, I have my own proprietary stock market timing program. I bought it in 1992 for $100. It is called the OEXpert 7 Stock Market Timing Program. Go ahead, Google it. This thing is so rare, you’ll not likely find it, or learn one thing about it anywhere on the web. I may have just about the only working copy of it left in the entire universe. I did give it to a friend last spring, but only on the promise that he not share it with anyone else.

Within this program are 7 helps. The first is a price chart of the OEX, or S&P 100 index, and the other 6 are oscillating indicators that it generates with the data I input. These oscillators range between upper and lower extremes on their respective scales. As they all attain unto the bottom of their scales, the “signal” is in, and the measure of risk is typically about as low as it is going to get, and I look for a stock market reversal to the upside. They’re getting close to signaling that now, and all could certainly do so, again, as with the other program I wrote of above, by Tuesday evening.

The price of the OEX is now at its lower 2 trading bands, as generated by the program. That constitutes 1 signal.

F1 is in the low 20’s, and needs to attain unto at least 13 at this time, and is always better if it can get down to 10 or lower. It’s headed down now, and could easily make those marks before Wednesday. I’ll be watching daily for its signal.

F2 has fallen almost to -40 on its scale. It has signaled, but I discount it, as it almost always signals first, and is the least useful of the 7 in the program… but, it is already there.

F3 is now under 10, and has signaled. It could even get to 0, which would be stronger than it has already registered for me.

F4 is only at -15, and needs to fall further, to at least -30 to signal, but it’s headed down, and could easily signal before Wednesday.

F5 has declined, and is now under 40 on its particular scale. That’s a signal.

Finally, F6 has just dropped to the bottom of its range, and constitutes another signal in the camp that is saying risk is going, going, and almost gone!

So, as I see it from these 11 I have just checked, the turn is immanent, and I would be putting a shopping list together of whatever it is that I wanted to buy. If we continue lower, which is a real possibility, one could be pro-active, and actually start to do some nibbling, if one was so inclined. Otherwise, it’s perfectly alright to just wait until you see it starting… which, at this point, I would honestly render an opinion, and say that I think I am looking for an after-election relief rally to commence next Wednesday morning.

As we get closer, I will make any changes in my opinion necessary, based upon how I see my market timing indicators to be working through the market data of these next 3 trading days.

May the Lord bless you all… with successful investing and trading!
Harold F Crowell

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4 thoughts on “Market Timing Alert Update!

  1. Kris J Lindquist says:

    Hi Harold! What happened to the bond blog site? No longer avail. And the option income blog? Was interested in this emerging bond crisis – you not pursuing anymore? Thanks! Kris

    • Kris, I’m sorry. Readership of the bond blog fell precipitously to near zero, and the questions I was receiving from readers indicated that they were not understanding what I was posting there. The final blow was that the brokerage I use was not going to let me buy those bonds, and I was going to have to move my account. As for the option income blog, I confess that I was not able to get myself up to speed to professionally come up with and advise on good Put sales that would be regularly profitable. The last straw was when my wife asked me what she would do if anything were to happen to me. She did not know, or understand, how or what I was doing. I knew then and there I had to make and keep everything simple, for her sake, and my readers; and went back to safely growing a portfolio dividend income as easily as possible by means of the best long-term, buy-and-hold, safe-dividend growing stocks I can find. And, since coming back to this strategy, I’ve decided to even simplify the strategy, by increasing the number of holdings, and loosening the buying instructions as to timing, to whenever one has the capital to accumulate some shares. I hope you will be understanding. Thanks, Harold

      • Kris J Lindquist says:

        Totally understand. Thanks for the low-down. Very much appreciate your ongoing suggestions. Will you keep updating us with OEX7 timing updates? Does Stansberry have a service that’s tracking the bond situation (that you would recommend)?

  2. I will, and he does. The timer, as you can imagine, is far from signaling low risk, and his bond service is called Stansberry’s Credit Opportunities. I’ll make mention of it as the time and recommendations start to come, under the proper circumstances he’s awaiting. Harold

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