Briefly, I’ve been watching the 7 indicators within my OEXpert 7 Stock Market Timing Program, from 1992, and it is telling me that though the market has been going sideways, for what would seem like forever, risk has been coming off a bit at a time. And, it would not take a whole lot more to reset its indicators, as least those that decline when the market moves sideways, as it has, to get to their respective places of signaling a low-risk market entry opportunity. Price has not moved down toward its lower trading bands within the program, so, I’m not going to see any signal from price action. That’s fine. F1, though, has gotten down to 12, and is under its lower trading band, and that is a signal. F2 is at -17, and it could easily signal, with just a day or two of downside price action. F3 is at 37, and needs to get to 10 to signal… another couple of days could do that. F4 looks to be at -1. It needs too much to signal soon, and I’d be inclined to overlook it for now. F5 is at 49. It needs to get to 40 to signal, but it has just turned up from 47 in the past day or so, and only some downside price action would get it to 40, I believe. Again, this would probably take at least 2 more days. Finally, F6. It’s at 21. One more day, or two, would also put this one in place.
So, here is my take. If this will happen. IF, and that’s a big if… if we can get some more relatively poor market action Wednesday and Thursday, I would be of an opinion that the market is factoring in bad news Friday morning, out of fear of a strong jobs report, that would likely increase the odds of an interest rate hike. That is, the market has been sloughing off risk for weeks, and is actually in a greater fear of a jobs report that will likely be bad for stocks. Got that?
That said, it is only my guess, but I am thinking that what will actually happen, as the market almost always stymies the largest number of participants… my guess is that it will not be a good jobs report, but a relatively weak one, and that a relief rally is going to ensue, because the odds of a rate hike will tumble. That’s just my guess, but it’s based on every factor I know how to include into my figuring.
So, if anyone is inclined to play that guess, and we get any further risk relief in the indicators, as a result of Wednesday’s and Thursday’s market action… you would want to be a buyer before Thursday’s close. Then, come Friday morning, if we actually see the jobs report that I am ‘predicting,’ you will feel like a genius… or, else, I’ll probably be your GOAT! LOL!!!
What this means is, of course, I need to get right on top of my game, and report regularly right here, to tell you if the above scenario, I just outlined, appears to be playing out, or not. And, I will.
Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell