As I update the market timing software, I’m really taken with how high it is presently measuring risk… it would appear to be very high! But, my many long years at this, and with this program, tells me not to try to call a top. It’s very hard to do. When this rally run is over, it will be over. And, when it does come back, I would only expect it to test the new support level established when the previous resistance was broken. So, at this time, I’m not expecting anything dramatic… but, then, maybe that’s when some real drama will finally turn up! That all sounds so very wise, doesn’t it?
It doesn’t matter. When the market goes into a spell of decline, I measure the risk, and when the indicators are saying to me that risk has been wrung out, that’s when I am a buyer. It got ever so close to giving me a good all-out signal back in late June, right about Wednesday the 29th. In hindsight, it would have been a great occasion to have jumped in, wouldn’t it?
A run of my search brings to me the very best of the safe-dividend growing stocks. They are: JKHY, NKE, TJX, EFX, HRL, ROST, HD, AOS, TSCO, UNH, LOW, NOC, SYK, EL, STZ, COST, FDS, RAI, SBUX, LMT, CVS, NDAQ and DG.
The market being as strong as it has, nearly all our selections are doing well. The weakest of the entire bunch, price-wise, are: NKE, HRL, TSCO, EL, SBUX and CVS.
We have great stocks. It’s been a great market, but the measures of risk are getting very high, and so, now, as everyone begins to maybe feeling a little fat, dumb and happy… it may be time to give some of this back, and to reset the risk measures. I’d like that!
Tuesday morning the 19th, and though Japan closed up, other Asian markets were down, and Europe is off as I type at 7:00 am EST. Our own index futures are lower, as well, by .10 to .30%. Perhaps a decline will start… it’s due.
Here’s to your successful investing,
Harold F Crowell