Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Which Way Did it Go?

Friday morning saw an abysmal jobs report. The worst in years. It disrupted everything! This was especially true among the precious metals group, where I have been most active of late, and have been writing about very accurately here: https://goldstocktraderblog.wordpress.com/

Stocks were smacked, but struggled back most of the way the rest of the day. But, now, the time is coming where it must take heed of the real direction of the economy, and even more importantly, corporate earnings. Earnings have been reported lower in each of the past 4 qtrs. The entire decline to date being some 7%. This is an actual read or feel for the economy here in the States, and to a certain degree, all around the world. The economy here and abroad is not strong, but only tepid, at best. Beyond that, statistically, after 2 down qtrs in earnings… 81% of the time, we slipped into an actual recession. So, the odds are actually quite high that we will do so again. Add to that one stat, that we are now in what has been described as the second longest Bull Market in history, and you wind up with a description of this latest rally, since February 11, as the most hated stock market rally in history… it has been most distrusted, which is actually, from a contrarian point of view, a positive and constructive.

All that said, it must be emphasized that whenever you look, you can always find, and make, a case for either a bullish or a bearish case for stocks, as every argument is always out there, and that has never been more true than since the proliferation of the internet. So, the only thing you can reasonably do is to watch price and volume each day to see if it can be read or interpreted… and to either a greater or lesser degree, depending upon who you want to listen to, it can. To be completely honest, I was as skeptical of the rally out of February as anyone ever was, and I hardly participated in it at all. I had my reasons, but obviously, they were not ever reason enough. I also read others who were considerably more negative about stocks than I was… to the point that they were shorting the market, and got hurt.

Enough of that; let’s get down to the real business. What are the very best of the safe-dividend growing stocks? Only the very same 22 as on previous days: NKE, HRL, JKHY, ROST, TJX, HD, EFX, SBUX, NOC, STZ, TSCO, EL, AOS, UNH, FDS, LOW, SYK, RAI, LMT, COST, CVS and NDAQ.

If it’s serious price strength that intrigues you at all, take a look at: JKHY, TJX, EFX, NOC, TSCO, AOS, UNH, FDS, LOW, SYK, RAI and COST. It looks at though UNH and SYK even closed at new highs! How’s that for a performing portfolio? It never ceases to amaze me.

I’ll get back to my timer over the weekend… Cathing up with the timer on Monday morning, it is little changed with risk being measured as medium/high, and the premarket openers are up by about 1/4 of 1%.

Here’s to your investing success!
Harold F Crowell

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