Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Was This the Confirmation Rally?

Until I get to the issue of volume, I can’t say just yet. Based purely on price action, when you get all your indexes poppin’ more than 1%, that’s usually a real good sign. But, then, it pretty much all came in the morning, went flat for most of the rest of the day, and even did some declining during the last 1/2 hour. All of which has to raise a flag of suspicion!

Then, I do go to the volume bars, and I see that in most instances it was less than average! However, that was my complaint during nearly all of the entire rally out of February 11… so, what are we to make of all this? Simple, really. When in doubt, I do without. If I miss the bus, or the train pulls out of the station without me… I always know that another one will be coming.

As I previously stated, when it’s not possible to go in with full conviction, like I advocated back last August and September, you just commit a little, and if that works out… Great! And, if it should prove to have not been a truly opportune occasion, you can’t get seriously hurt,… and you’ve kept plenty of powder dry for the next real opportunity. That’s the best one can do, and that’s all a part of sound, wise investing. Go in big when confidence is high… commit a little when your confidence is not solid. I’ll acquire a little.

What would I want to be a buyer of? Only the very best of the safe-dividend growers: NKE, HRL, JKHY, ROST, TJX, HD, EFX, SBUX, NOC, STZ, TSCO, EL, AOS, UNH, FDS, LOW, SYK, RAI, LMT, COST, CVS and NDAQ.

Of the above issues, I see the most technical price strength in: JKHY, HD, EFX, NOC, STZ, AOS, UNH, LOW, SYK, LMT and NDAQ… with new highs already in place with EFX and AOS.

Then, there’s this good news… Northrup Grumman (NOC) raised their dividend to us from $3.20 to $3.60 a share. That $.40 a share ‘pay raise’ is 12.5%… precisely why we want to be buyers and holders of these very safest-dividend growers, as they make our income increase rapidly, at a rate that far exceeds inflation!

So, let’s see if the market will follow through tomorrow, or if not, it would need to do so again, within the next 4 to 7 business days… that’s what typically comprises a true ‘new rally’ confirmation. We would really want it to settle back a bit, and then pop again… before Monday, June the 6th, without breaking below current support! Mark it on your calendar.


7:40 am EST, and stocks are up the world over… our own futures are ahead by .37 to .46%. It would appear to be a tradable rally, at the very least. I’ve some companies I’d like to add shares of, but, I’m not making a huge commitment, as this ‘rally’ just doesn’t show the elements of being the real thing yet.

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell


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