We go to the month-end/quarter-end favorable seasonality. Anything I look at says this should be over, but, of course, it just keeps on going. Oil is back to mere pennies above $38, and bankruptcies are rising. Technicals are stretched to levels rarely ever seen. Fundamentals are not so good that it could be said that the market is a bargain. The forward P/E on the 500 stands at 20:1! More later…
Oil is now under $38, and world markets, and our futures, are all down. Surprise! I know I’ve said it all February, and now all March… but, these things take time. They don’t come overnight, and this thing has been percolating since at least last spring and summer. And, more and more, it’s coming to work its will. The debt-bomb fuse has been lit… it is going off. The central banks can’t stop it, and it’s going to get bad; very bad.
So, why is oil declining? Saudi Arabia and Kuwait announce they’re re-opening a field to produce 300,ooo more barrels a day. Why? Their govt coffers are suffering, and they want all the petro-dollars they can generate… they all do!
Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell