It’s been quite some time since I understood what was going on here in 2016. Now, everywhere I turn, it’s out there. Seems about everyone now knows what the present market driver is… and, oil is up as I write at 7:00 am EST, to $38.69 a barrel. And, with this increase Asia closed up, Europe is up, and our index futures are up, by .87 to 1.17%. It’s going to look like a good opening. However, $39 oil is not high enough yet to save us from the debt-bomb explosion… we need to see at least a steady $45 oil!
But, as anyone can also see, we are right at the second inflection point. The first was the 50-day moving average, and it blew right through that one. However, now we are at both the 200-day moving average, which is down-trending, and all of the overhead supply, or resistance of so much stock that had been bought, and held, since about this time 1 entire year ago. There’s an awful lot of people, holding an awful lot of stock, that have been waiting an awful long time to unload it, if ever they got an opportunity to sell it at something akin to ‘break-even’. And, it looks just like they might get their chance.
I promised the Boston-area investor group I spoke to last night a live-link to the daily oil column I’ve found so helpful in The Week. Here it is: http://www.theweek.co.uk/oil-price/60838/oil-price-light-at-the-end-of-a-long-tunnel-says-watchdog
We may be setting up for a tremendous shorting opportunity. More in a bit, if necessary…
Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell