Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

The 8 Horses of the Apocalypse

There is free charting at stockcharts.com and at investors.com. If I were tech savvy, I’d have this incredible blog, with all these charts… but, I’m an old guy now, and I just don’t ‘get’ this stuff. I’m sort of a techno-illiterate type. But, give me a set of tools and open the hood, or roll-up on a motorcycle, and I’m in all my glory! What I could really use is some young techno-whiz kid who would whip all this up on my very own website, and we’d make money selling ad space, or however it is those things can turn into a cash-generator. I even have a funded account with GoDaddy… and, I can’t do a thing with it, personally, myself! It’s laughable, but I don’t seem to have any aptitude for that kind of thing… and an even worse attitude toward it!

I’ve been writing some awfully dark stuff lately, like I’ve gone over to the dark side in just the past month, but I have my reasons. There are at least 8 of them right now. You’ll want to use the free charting services I mentioned.

1.) HYG. This is the ETF for High-Yield Corporate Bonds, otherwise known as junk bonds. Unless they are actually emerging from out of their very own bear market right now, as of 2/11, they’ve been in a bear all their own, saying that the U.S. economy is fragile, and the likelihood of more distressed companies being unable to service their debt is rising.

2.) IEF. This is the ETF for 7 to 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bonds. Since the beginning of the year, again, unless price is in a process of changing direction, from up to down, has been demonstrating an amazing flight of capital to the safety of U.S. Treasuries… Why?

3.) GLD. As the letters imply, this is the ETF for the price of physical gold. As with treasuries, since the beginning of the year, there has been a flight to the safety of the yellow metal. And, like treasuries, it’s in a process of digesting recent gains, by going sideways. Is it merely a pause that refreshes?

4.) XLF. This ETF is representative of large U.S. Financial institutions. There are a great many lenders among them… including lenders holding, or having issued, a lot of hard-to-service debt by strapped corporate borrowers. It’s in an all-out Bear Market already, and, as with others mentioned already, unless it’s shaking that Bear off; looks to be in a recovery mode of sorts, also since 2/11. For how much longer?

5.) ETFs of world markets. I have a list of some 32 of those I chart and can examine in a matter of a moment or two. I’ll list them in the order they are sorted in a watchlist I’ve placed them in… Peru, Bear since peaking 7/10/14, unless turning Bull since 1/20/16. Columbia, peaked and went Bear as of 9/4/14, and unless becoming a Bull as of 12/14/15. Thailand, Bear since 9/24/14, last bear low was 1/7/16. Chile, Bear since 5/14/14, last low 1/20/16. Denmark, Bear since 12/31/15, last low was 2/9/16. Canada, Bear since high of 9/4/14, last Bear low was 1/20/16. Taiwan, Bearish as of 4/27/15, and bottomed recently on 1/20/16. Turkey, Bear since 7/28/14, last bottomed 1/21/16. Israel, Bear only since 8/14/15, and last low was 2/11/16. Russia, Bear since 6/24/14, last low was on 1/20/16. Netherlands, went Bear after 6/22/15, and last bottomed 2/11/16. Sweden, Bear since top of 5/21/14, last low seen was 2/11/16. Hong Kong, Bear since peaking 5/27/15, bottomed 2/11/16. Japan, Bear since topping out 4/28/15, and last lowed with the rest of the world, on 2/11/16. France, Bear after 6/6/14 top, and most recent low was 2/11 as well. Mexico, Bear since topping 9/5/14, and last bottomed 2/11, too. Brazil, Bear since peak on 9/3/14, and last low was 1/21/16. Without boring you with all the rest… Australia, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, Singapore, The UK, South Africa, Germany, South Korea, China, Spain, India, Italy and Malaysia… All, ALL, every last one of them, are all already well into Bear Markets, where their price is under a down-trending 50-day moving average, which is under the 200-day moving average of price. All the world is in the grip of a Bear Market, and taking away literally trillions of dollars in people’s wealth. And, unless, and until proven, that February 11th was the end of their bear markets; which is highly unlikely… they remain, and are still, in bear markets.

6.) EPS. I get to chart a daily revised and updated analysts’ consensus of forward-looking earnings estimates for whatever issue is in the database, and has an analyst following. I can put any group of issues together, having estimates, and chart an average of all of those. But, probably most usefully, I can chart an average of the estimates for all 500 issues in S&P 500. That average for all those estimates peaked on 12/28, and has been on downhill run ever since. That EPS decline is off 8% in 2 months, and unless it reverses very soon, IT IS SCREAMING U.S. RECESSION! Our own market’s Bull Market peak could be said to have been back in April… or, May, or June, or July, or August… or, November. But the last Bull Market top was early December. And, until the bottom of 2/11, it has broken into Bear Market territory. And, unless 2/11 actually marked the end of the Bear… this is a Bear Market now. It’s not old, and it’s not yet deep. If anyone wanted to get risk-averse and defensive, they have a great opportunity to be doing so… right here!

7.) The Central Banks of the EU and Japan. European central banks, and now, as of January 29, Japan, have gone to negative interest rates. This is for the purpose of stimulating economic activity, but the only activity I hear of is the purchase of home safes has skyrocketed, as individuals have said they’ll just keep their cash at home, and “stuff it in the mattress”. Why is there world-wide recession going on and spreading? Money velocity. It’s not that there isn’t enough money in existence; it’s because what money is in existence is barely moving within the economies under the various central banks in question. It will likely be our own Federal Reserve Bank’s next move, too. But, as in Europe and in Japan now… it will not work! They’re all wanting to stave off the recession they’ve created, and the depression that is likely coming… but, they cannot. It will happen.

8.) XOI. Finally, and this is where the real culprit lies. We need to look at Oil. At the present price, right now $32.84. An incredible number of oil industry companies cannot turn a profit. Shoot, they can’t even service their debt-load. Energy production is a capital-intensive business. It takes a lot of money to produce energy. That money gets borrowed, before the energy is generated. Once it’s coming out of the wells, capital flows, and the debt gets paid… first! Oil’s been in its very own Bear Market since peaking 6/23/14, and bottomed 1/20/16, with its most recent low being 2/11. It was not until oil’s price broke below where many firms can’t service their debt on 1/6/16, that things started to get truly dicey. It’s literally a threat to the entire world’s economy, as an incredible amount of debt is beginning to go bad, and threaten the financial stability of… everything!

Every one of these 8 indications I’m listing are all telling us this… but, the media is not. They dare not. Not ’til it’s happening, and it’s TOO LATE! Watch XOI. Watch oil prices. Watch for that magical number of something like $45 a barrel… IF it should get there anytime in the relatively near future, you will see such a collective world-wide sigh of relief, and an explosion in stock prices, such as we’ve probably never seen before! But, don’t be counting on that.

The mantra among those companies, and those nations’ economies, that are the most, or entirely, dependent upon the production of raw energy… oil and gas, at these low prices, have only one option and one choice. In order to generate maximum cash flow to attempt to sustain their viability… they’ve gotta “Drill, Baby, Drill!” For if they cannot service their debt… They’re dead. Cap production? Cut production? Not on your life, for if these firms or nations do… they KNOW they’re as good as dead already!

Since 2/11, the markets have all been taking a pause and a breather. Don’t let this complacency fool you. It’s not over. It’s only the top of the first inning… and, it doesn’t look bad… yet. But, all the warning signs are there. What are you gonna do? 42 energy firms folded in ’15, and 6 already here in ’16… many more are in the wings at this price in oil. $45 oil would help. $50 oil would be good, and $60 oil would likely be total deliverance, but demand is not rapidly rising at this low price, and production cannot be cut by anyone desperate for cash. Devastation would seem to be almost certain and assured, and the above warnings signs are all saying the very same thing.

I’ve read opinion that has actually said that 2/11 was the bottom, and that our market is just launching on a 20 to 30% Bull Market rally, that will take it right back up to new all-time highs. Cool! But, unless they’ve got an inside scoop on how oil’s going to blow past $45 a barrel in the very next few months, their call is going to look like an awful lot of egg on their face. This isn’t about technical indicators, friends. This is about economic fundamentals going right off the rail! Oil is the key now… WATCH OIL!!!

If the above scenario should unfold, as it would appear it’s going to… all that I spoke of in my previous post will also come to pass, and we will all have an incredible opportunity… to become truly rich!

———————

I have JUST read of a 9th indication, but will save it for another post. It only just came my way, and has just further confirmed everything I have just written above!

——————–

I then saw this headline: “Global finance officials promise to shore up sagging growth”. I read the story… they were all ‘talk’ and they said nothing!

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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2 thoughts on “The 8 Horses of the Apocalypse

  1. tom v says:

    It would be helpful if you could put the symbols in for the stocks/etfs you are discussing if it isin’t asking too much, then people could find them to look at the charts.Thanks!

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