Two major drillers announced they’re cutting production in the Bakken Shale of North Dakota. One’s cutting by 10%, the other by 20.
There’s more than 500 million barrels in storage in the U.S. The entire industry must cut by 10% in order for prices to rise to where it can be saved! Yesterday’s news was nowhere near salvation, friends. Price is at $33, and stocks mounted a relief rally… on even LOWER volume. That’s real conviction, folks. (sarcasm dripping here)
And, the earnings estimate average for all the 500 dropped another penny, and is now off by 8% in just the first 2 months of this year. Starting paying attention for the “R” word! It’s coming. P/E on estimate, after ‘rally’ is now at 18.94!
I teach my semi-annual 5 Essential Principles of Successful Stock Market Investing class next Tuesday nite for an adult continuing education school. Is that ever going to be fun! I love bringing this!
——————
Oil’s still rising… Venezuela’s wanting to talk to OPEC members about capping production… so far, none of the others have responded. They would all cheat and lie, and there would be no real cap anyway. Watch this rally attempt a move on its 200-day moving average, another 3% higher, if we can get there… I just might sell all the rest.
——————-
Stocks are moving with oil, and oil is moving up… for now. The fundamentals have not changed, and eventually, when this is realized, oil will come back down… and, so will stocks. So, if you are inclined to get defensive, this is your opportunity to do so. If we get to the 200-day moving average, we’ll really learn what this market is made of. Will volume, and conviction, finally present itself today? It hasn’t so far!
Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell
Elite Wall Street Investor 
Harold,
You state in today’s post…..”Watch this rally attempt a move on its 200-day moving average, another 3% higher, if we can get there… I just might sell all the rest.”
I understand your views on a Bear market, oil and debt bomb issues and fully appreciatea need for Capital preservation. What I have trouble accepting is what appears to be your full 180 degree about face on the whole concept of building a safe, quality dividend portfolio for retirement, with a dividend growth rate that doubles your dividends every few years even without re-investment.. As an example to support my concern I back tested your original portfolio from the first week of the year 2000 to year end 2015. Results show a $100,000 investment becomes $951,000 by the end of 2015. All 16 issues were winners, CROR was 15%, MDD was 36% (caused by the GFC). These results did not include compounded dividend yield, dividend reinvestment, or taking advantage of new investment when everyone else is panic selling. Yes, capital preservation is very important, But, so is preservation of issues with great original cost basis that makes dividend yield growth so attractive. Why toss the best out with the rest!!
Jus my thoughts my friend from a glass half full guy always looking for opportunities to fill the rest of the glass with quality information and quality returns on invested Capital.
sincerely,
Graham Morland
Graham, I understand your concern… my total flip came when I recently learned that we had ‘arrived’, and that we don’t have to endure any of the other! We’ll do just fine without a portfolio dividend income, and any stress involved in trying to create it… which will surely involve some ‘stresses’. That said, I still intend to benefit my readers… more than I have written so far…! Stay tuned!!!
Harold,
Thanks. I missed the fact that you had arrived at your retirement goal earlier than anticipated. Congratulations. What will be your inflation protection? Your good wife and yourself are still young (from my viewpoint). So, god willing, you have many years ahead of you to manage life and finances.
Yes, we hope that’s true. I have ‘another plan’ up our sleeve, that I will be revealing shortly. It’s due to what I believe will be an extraordinary market opportunity within the next 1 to 3 years. I’ll be writing of that real soon. Harold