Reader Brad writes, “Harold: What web site(s) do you access for the Asia and European futures?”
I apologize. I owe everyone an apology. I never mentioned that before. I’m getting to be an old guy. I’m not looking to make anything off of anyone anymore. I really am about giving it all away; being a blessing to others. I’ve been writing an awful lot lately about our pre-openers and overseas markets… and I never even told you where you could see all that information for yourself. Please forgive me.
Brad, for you, and everyone else, click on this link and bookmark this site in your favorites: http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
To the left will be our index futures, and below them is where you can see what’s going on in Japan and Hong Kong, then England and Germany. As I write, Japan closed up a couple of tenths. Hong Kong is still open and up better than 1%. Europe has yet to open.
Our Index futures are ahead, as of 1:49 am EST by 1.64 to 2.15%. We can expect a good pop on the open, if that holds. So, you see, I don’t have any special edge here that you can’t have… and it’s absolutely free. Again, I’m sorry. Perhaps I won’t have to write about it so much!
My point in going there and writing it up daily has been because I knew we were transitioning… the market was acting weird, and I couldn’t tell whether we were completing a Bull Market correction, or entering a real Bear Market. I was in the correction camp, but have since flipped, and become a Bear. I could have called it before I did, but I was so convinced of the other, I wasn’t willing to check other things out that would have told me that we were certainly entering a Bear Market.
What other things? The other world bourses… they are all in Bears. The direction of high-yield bonds, treasury interest rates, gold… everything has begun signalling that we are entering a very frightening period. Friday was up, and Tuesday is looking to open well, but it all hinges on the price of oil, and those firms massively leveraged with debt that cannot service it with oil prices this low.
One last note… I actually missed the one Bear tip I was supposed to be looking for. Missed it entirely. I’ve written of it so many times, too. The 5 sure signs of a Bear, with a 6th optional one thrown in. You know what they are… Price pierces 50-day and then 200-day moving averages. 50-day rolls over and commences to trend down. The 50-day then pierces the 200-day, and then the 200-day rolls over. I wasn’t paying attention when the 6th clue took place. I only spotted it this weekend, while reviewing everything.
The market will rally from beneath its moving averages, only to rise far enough to ‘kiss’ its 200 day, and then fall away… charting the equally weighted S&P 500 stocks, as I typically do… there it was! From the low point of the market, put in from the 11th thru the 21st, it lifted off… only to ‘kiss’ its 200-day moving average, and fall away… on December 29 and 30! And I didn’t even see it!
I noted a full-blown, all-in market bottom, with the Wednesday morning January 20 smash, but thought that was going to be the turning point from out of which the next Bull Market recovery rally was going to ensue. I didn’t like how it was ‘starting’ until we got a great pop on the 29th. Then explained what had to happen next… all the while studying and realizing, it was not likely to happen. And, in fact, it didn’t. We’re rallying again right now, but don’t hold out any great hope for it… do some selling into it, if your inclined to step aside. I’ve sold some, and am going to sell just a bit more. It’s still very early in this Bear. If you’re thinking that whatever you are presently down by is all about to come back… don’t trust that thought or emotion, as the likelihood of that happening is somewhere between slim and none.
I’ll keep my eye on the forward-looking earnings estimate average for the 500. You don’t have that. If it continues downward for the rest of February, and into March… it already being off by 6.7% in 6 weeks, I’d say it was calling for some very big trouble to come our way soon!
This is very pertinent information right here… these are giant, major financial institutions that made new lows in the past week. When financials hurt like this, it, too, is a sign of bad economic times coming!
Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell