Dividend Growth Investing, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

They’re Open, We’re Closed

Closed for President’s Day today, but Asia and Europe are not. Asia has already closed, but get this: Japan popped during their Monday by 7.16%! Hong Kong rose by 3.27%. Europe is trading now, and they’re having a happy time, too. The UK is ahead by 2%, and Germany by 2.80%.

Our own index futures, now trading in Europe, are ahead by 1.44 to 1.89%. We should be able to hope for further follow-through when we open tomorrow… and that means, if you are wanting to get more defensive, you’ll likely have opportunity to lighten up. I’ll be selling our IBM and taking that loss. With all that’s hanging over energy, and its influence on UNP, I think I’ll part with some, or all, of that. And, I have way too much TSCO. It’s become, by far, much larger than our other positions, so I want to square that up.

Let me close with this. Estimates among the 500 companies in that S&P index have been being revised downward on a daily basis since the end of 2015. As of now, the cuts have totaled an entire 6.7% of the earnings that were forecast only 6 weeks ago. Let that sink in. Earnings estimates, to date, are being pared by analysts at a rate that is on a track of decline equal to 1% per week! How long can that go on before complete and utter panic sets in, and the market collapses?!?!? Look for this to reverse course, if we are to be saved. I’ll watch it daily, but if this trend persists further, to the end of February, and continues on into March. I don’t even want to think about it!

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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4 thoughts on “They’re Open, We’re Closed

  1. Erich Brewer says:

     This guy is now my guru…a free service….review old postings to get a feel….I think you will like it as much as I do!!

  2. Robert Smith says:

    Harold,

    I am interested in your “rationale” for selling IBM. It has not yet announced a dividend reduction, has it? Are you “anticipating” such an event? How does your average cost per share compare to IBM’s current price? I can see on a price graph that IBM’s price is back to 2011 levels. If you sell and later see that IBM is beginning to recover, while not having lowered their dividend, will you then re-consider your decision and start a new position in the stock?

    I am a current subscriber to the “never-to-be-named” software and have read all of your posts on that Yahoo National Group Board and I have been reading your posts on this board for the past 3 months, with interest.

    Respectfully,
    Bob

    • Bob, I don’t understand. I haven’t posted anything on Yahoo for quite some time. As for why I’m selling IBM. I will excerpt the analyst I had believed in, who was convinced their turn-around would work… until he turned around against it. Harold

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