What’s to be said? If you paid any attention at all, you already know. We tiptoed thru Thursday without any drama. The market opened well… pretty strong, and for an hour and a half, you might have thought… This is it! But, it wasn’t. It returned the zero line, and it didn’t crumble. Then, in the last hour, it moved along nicely, to finish with a small win. Perfect!
If this market is going to explode to the upside, it’s setting up to do it with this kind of market behavior. It’s just looking for a reason… that one piece of ‘less-bad’ news. Will it get it? IDK!
So, now, here we are looking into Friday. Day 5 since it popped from a pretty grossly oversold level, and it’s been digesting last Friday. It actually reversed to the upsaid on Wednesday the 20th, first thing that morning… more than 2 weeks ago! This makes this some basing and bottoming, or so we hope. The EPS estimate average for all 500 companies in the S&P dropped 2 more pennies, to $4.25 a share… that’s gotta reverse here soon, if it’s not going to signal a U.S. recession. I’m willing to give it no more than even 2 more weeks MAX, to begin to right that ship.
I saw a news story about the debt-bomb! I see news about dividend cuts, and debt ratings down-grades. There’s trouble brewin’! Will we dodge a bullet? I have grave reservations… ever since last weekend, as you read of my change of opinion. I have some incredibly optimistic posts prior to last weekend. I have no such rose-colored glasses on anymore. And, I’m going to stop… the cliches are starting to get to me!
This is how market suspense builds. So, what other clues do we have to look at? Up volume has been exceeding down volume on most of the up days. I had complained about that earlier, how that up volume was not there, and recovery would not look like that… that concern has reversed itself since Wednesday the 27th, and volume has been exceeding down volume well… and that last minute had massive upside volume. What’s happened since? I’ll check back in later. Will it be a frantic Friday, a friendly Friday?
Don’t think I’ll write like this every day. This is an extraordinary time. I think that the market is going to make it, or break it here very soon. You know that I thought it was going to be to the upside, and it still may well do that. Now, I think it is more likely to do so to the downside, and the time for it to do so, would seem to me to be running out. I give it thru Tuesday at the best, to confirm last Friday’s ‘pop’ as having been real… and after next week, if it hasn’t yet. Wouldn’t there be some trouble?!?!? I think… yes. I think another look into the foreign ETFs might be of help by then, too, to see if they show further Bear market deterioration since last week……
O, and what was with precious metals and mining shares?!?!? Did they ever have an up day! Did that have anything to do with increasing fear?
I’ve been asked how much I have lost since the start of the year. I don’t know. I calculate from maximum account value when it peaked last Fall, and since then, we’ve experienced a decline of 9.3%. I’m not sweating that. / Went back and added up the balances from the 12/31 statements, and we’re actually off by 6.1% on the year, for those of you who worry about me.
As of 1:00 a.m. EST, our futures are flat, Asia is alright. Europe hasn’t opened. More later.
In Asia, not much happened. In Europe, not much happening… and our futures are only slightly up. Could be another totally ho-hum day, until it isn’t! We wait, and we watch.
Don’t even know what the 8:30 jobs report was, but the market was not much taken with it. Futures are now off .36 to .46 as of 8:40 a.m. EST. How much will this carry over? WOW! Just saw the jobs report, and the latest unemployment filings… the reports, despite govt spin, are just AWFUL!!! I’m willing to ‘predict’ that the EPS estimates I am seeing revised daily, are NOT going to turn up in the next week or two. Signs are pointing to slowing… U.S. Industrial production is already in a recession of its own! The stuff may hit the fan, just as this Prez and his administration are wrapping up their second term.
Here’s to your successful investing,
Harold F Crowell