Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Bullish and Bearish Portfolio Stocks

As you may know, I have a portfolio of concentrated safe-dividend growing issues. I don’t have 50 or 100 stocks, but focus on some 22 issues at this time. By applying the same analysis, employing simple 50 and 200-day moving averages to each one, so as to determine whether they are either in a Bullish or Bearish state, as I did the foreign country ETFs and our own stock market indexes, they each tell a tale of sorts.

For instance, those which are well below their 50 and 200-day averages, and their averages have bowed over and commenced to downtrend are: ABC, AAPL, BLK, CMCSA, CNI, ECL, FDS, GILD, IBM and UNP. That’s 10 of them, what of the other 12?

Of the remaining 12 stocks, easily 5 of those are seemingly neither, they are sort of neutral, and b’twixt and b’tween. I would not say they are bearish, but it’s not possible to call them bullish either. These are: AMGN, CHD, CVS, TSCO and VFC. You might see and judge some of these differently. A certain degree of subjectivity does come into play.

Finally, though, there are perhaps these 7, that still show a lot of relative strength… enough that I view them as still being bullish. These are: COST, DG, HRL, NKE, ROL, ROST and TJX.

With the opinion that I am coming to formulate, on the basis of that which I saw around the world, and data coming in that suggests that the world economy is quite weak, and our own here in the U.S. is far from robust and possibly faltering, leads me to believe that we are going to go the way of the markets of the rest of the nations of the world, which, as one person did the math for me on 17 different foreign market ETFs found that they had already peaked and declined from their Spring and Summer tops from as little as 18.9% for EWJ, to as much as EWZ’s collapse of 53.4% already!

I can’t speak to this definitively, but I have a sense that within, perhaps about the next 2 weeks time; this rally is going to tell us of the true nature and state of our markets, as to whether we’re going to resume the near 7-year old Bull, or confirm that we have joined all the rest of the world in entering our own Bear Market. My current opinion has changed and I am now leaning to the idea that the Bear is emerging from its cave of hibernation, and after nearly 83 months will be hungry to feed on stock investors.

———————

In the premarket, and as our index futures trade overseas, I see that as of 6:30 a.m. EST, they are off from .32 to .38%, and even though Asia is up, Europe is off by a similar amount at this time. Look for the breather, then the next lift in 3 to 7 business days, to give confirmation to this rally.

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell

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3 thoughts on “Bullish and Bearish Portfolio Stocks

  1. Harold, you’ve mentioned that with your OEX7 timing system, all 7 factors has flashed bullish or a good low risk entry point, and that the other system you monitor and its 4 factors has flashed bullish-good low risk entry point, yet you seem to not trust them in this environment. Why?
    I really enjoy your blog and comments. Thanks so much.

    • Mike, If you didn’t catch my point in my posts… I totally trusted that we would get an upside reversal, and that has commenced, but my concern has become whether it would be a new rally in an ongoing Bull Market, or merely the initial rebound attempt in a newly emerging Bear Market. I was previously of the first opinion, until I looked at all the rest of the world. But now… seeing that they are all in a Bear Market, my stronger ‘suspicioning’ is that we are entering into a Bear Market as all the rest of the world already has. We’ve just been the last hold-out. I am of new opinion that this rally will may very well be the last attempt to regain the Bull Market, but that it will fail… and we fall away into a full-blown Bear Market. If it should blow thru all the down-trending moving averages, and re-establish a whole new Bull trend, I would be thrilled… as that was what I was previously expecting it would do. But, now, in light of how all the rest of the world is performing, I hold little hope that this will still happen. I am now thinking that this near 7-year old Bull will die. It’s really just as simple as that! Harold

  2. Richard says:

    Good morning to you … interesting that your portfolio holdings confirms that the US consumer, though not spending every dime of the recent energy surprise, remains alive and well. I suspect this may change as the lagging employment indicators start to reflect the reality of the rock (energy collapse) falling into the pond and the ripples of its impact starts to be felt in most, if not all, sectors. Transports, Industrials, Materials and now Healthcare and Technology have been, or are now, hitting the major headwinds of ongoing stagflation as part of the bottoming of the commodity deflation of 2014-2015… the bull has been a challenge for a classic asset allocator, in that to garner historically higher yield one has had to step up market/economic risk over the past 5 odd years; as we now see a reversion to the mean. Optimistically, the bear market in commodity pricing looks to be, thankfully, trying to form a bottom, and with history as a backdrop, the major supply/demand imbalance has been completed or, at least, is within its final innings …. The relative safety of utilities at the moment has performed nominally as a fixed income alternative in this cycle. Hunting for some consumer staples that weather recessions well, that are attractively priced, has been on tap for the past several months …. Well, enough rambling, as usual, it’s great to follow your thoughts, and keep up your high spirits.
    Thanks to you!

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