Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

How Can I Be So Positive?

There is an awful lot of doom ‘n gloom out there. I know there is. I see it, and I hear it. I’ve been asked how I remain positive.

It’s a long story, but I’ll keep it short. 20 years ago, in the Summer of ’96, the market was getting pummeled. You can see it in the chart from back then. I was scared witless! People began to ask me about the market, and being a new broker, I had to sound cool, calm and collected. I was already using very fine indicators that told me that market risk had been wrung out, but I was not listening and trusting them… my gut was all tied up in one knot!

I was telling everybody… This is not time to sell, this is a time to be a buyer, and my inner man was saying to me… “Do you hear yourself? Listen to what you are saying!” Something happened that Summer, as the market did turn and rally hard. I decided to trust my market timing indicators of market risk, and that whenever they were to that place where they were saying that market risk had been wrung out… Be an aggressive buyer!

Well, over the past 24 years, I’ve gathered to me a bevy of some 10 or a dozen different indicators that seemingly only I have and follow. One old market timing program called OEXpert 7… of which it would seem that I possess the only working copy of in all the universe, has 7 of these indicators in it. Four more exist within the market and stock analytical program I use, and I have another I employ with my subscription to stockcharts.com that I have created using their custom chart set-up system. So, I can look at an easy dozen technical measures of stock market risk.

Here is what they are saying… Every single one of them is at that place where they are telling me that RISK has been largely wrung out of this market, and a rally is immanent! That’s all I know them to be telling me. They are saying to me that the market is putting in a bottom here, and this is a great time to be a BUYER, and not a seller. I believe them.

They might actually prove to all be mistaken, but honestly, I can’t remember one time when they ever were. I would think that if they were to fail me now, there would only be one good cause… and that would be that all of the negatives that have comprised the market’s wall of worry that it has had to climb all these many years have finally come home to roost, and that the very end of life on this earth, as we know it, would have to be coming to an end. That is, that the great world-wide, massively huge, debt-bomb had finally come to explode! I’ve been hearing of that stuff for more than 35 years… and one day, those doom ‘n gloomers will be right. But, until that day, I need to trust what has brought me here, and, I need to remain in our metals for the day that will come, when my timing indicators won’t work, as that debt-bomb finally does explode, and life on earth does come to an end as we know it.

I’ll review all 12 of those indicators next!

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell


5 thoughts on “How Can I Be So Positive?

  1. Richard says:

    Good morning …. Spot on commentary, my only questions to you, do you really enjoy monitoring all of the markets 24 hours per day? I prefer to attempt to create a SWAN portfolio i.e. Sleep Well At Night. In 2015 I actively followed market news, let the noise impact me emotionally and we know what that leads to, too much trading which in turn leads to lower returns. One of many 2016 goals ignore the noise, focus on being a prudent/conservative investor and focus on what really matters in life. Of course this doesn’t mean I will fade out your commentary which I find balances my half empty outlook with your half full outlook. Keep up the good work, and thank you

  2. Richard, I absolutely do not. I sometimes wake in the night, take a look, and post a brief comment. During the day, I usually pay little to no attention to it. I pay attention each morning to write some blog fodder, and then about 20 minutes each evening, I update our portfolio, and take a look at each individual issue for ongoing suitability. It might look like I spend a lot of time with this, but, in truth I really do not.

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