Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing, Uncategorized

Was RBS Wrong?

Royal Bank of Scotland, this past week, told their people to ‘Sell Everything!‘ Headlines like that are what contrarians love, as they almost always are among the best bottoming signs of the market. Did RBS get it all wrong?

One thing is for certain: Investor sentiment is already in the absolute pits.

Something I like to do every now and then, and you can, too, is to take each of your symbols, and go to a free charting site like the one at investors.com. At their site, find Research in the upper left of their home page, a drop-down menu will appear… click on IBD Charts, and voila, you’ve got free charting.

Now, I just went through all of our concentrated holdings, and I can tell you that our account is off 10.42%, and it’s beginning to feel a bit painful. If this is going Bear… the pain will get a lot worse. But, here’s a breakdown of how all of the concentrated holdings look.

A bullish pattern is price and 50-day moving average both being above the 200-day moving average, which is also trending upward. The Bearish pattern is where the share price and its 50-day average are below the 200-day average, and it has begun to trend downward.

I’ll list them all, and briefly describe them for you:
ABC, bearish, and note how the 200-day became last resistance at the very end of ’15.
AMGN, bearish, and only just now struggling with that status.
AAPL, bearish, and its 200-day was resistance back the beginning of November.
BLK, bearish, and the 200-day became resistance in the last part of December.
CHD, bearish, only just turned so in this month.
CMCSA, looks to be going bearish at this time. It’s under its averages, and 50-day has just crossed under the 200-day. Which is not a good sign.
CNI, bearish, 200-day proved resistance back in October.
COST, Bullish, one stock of notable strength, but sitting right on its 200-day.
CVS, bearish, started showing weakness after October.
DG, bearish, sort of a classic case-study. See how the 200-day proved resistance just as the years changed.
ECL, bearish, just began to fall apart with the new year.
FDS, bearish, as with others, has just begun to openly show it since the new year.
GILD, bearish, it started showing it in Nov/Dec.
HRL, bullish, by far the strongest. Study it for a Bullish case-study to understand what a bullish stock looks like.
IBM, bearish, been that way a long time, has been a ‘turn-around story’ that has yet to turn their business around!
NKE, bullish, but just like COST, it’s now sitting right on its 200-day.
ROL bearish, went bearish in December, and showing it more now.
ROST, bullish, another looking like a lone survivor, up to this point.
TJX, betwixt and between, but looking to go bearish at this time, even while it is demonstrating unusual relative strength!
TSCO, bearish, went that way in December.
UNP, hugely bearish, like IBM in its chart.
Finally, VFC, bearish, started looking that way in August, confirmed it in October, and has gone full-blown bearish with the new year.

There are 22 concentrated holdings. 18 are bearish, and only 4 are looking like having any Bullish strength left. It’s not looking pretty out there. RBS may be proven right!

I’ll write about some indexes next, and some summary remarks and strategy to consider. Look at each of your own stock’s chart with 50 and 200 day moving averages. Each one tells their own story!

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell


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