I did not say that Tuesday was the turning day. I did say what the turning day would look like. And, I did say that we have not seen that yet. The August and September lows are still in place. They have not yet been taken out. We don’t want them to be taken out. If they should hold, this could still be considered further corrective action within an ongoing Bull Market.
And, in fact, the more people that say it isn’t, the better. The worse sentiment gets, the greater the likelihood that it will turn and stymie them all! That’s just the way it works.
I will have to entirely change my own tune, if everything commences to unravel, and the lows are easily taken out, and the market should crater well beyond where support had been found previously.
I’m utterly fascinated with my one indicator, labelled F5. With F1, F2, F3, F4 and F6 all right in their respective signalling places for saying to me that market risk has been wrung out… I can’t begin to understand how it is that F5 just keeps right on hanging around its 50 level, when I would really like to see it to decline to its 40 signalling line, like all the others have done. Could it be that it ‘knows‘ something that the rest of the others don’t?
Have you taken notice of your portfolio, and where it is at? I just saw how much money ours was down, and that can cause some alarm. So, I immediately took the very same advice I give anyone, and explain… Never note the $ and cents. Always calculate on the basis of %. When computing percentages, the value can only be between 0 and 100. When you start working with large sums of money, a few % can look like a lot of money. For example, our portfolio’s value is off by only 7.98%. When I saw all those $ gone, and I felt a twinge of pain, I got the calculator out and learned it was not even an 8% loss.
Hey, if you can’t take a single-digit loss, you have no business in the market, as it will give you a heart-attack! 8% is no big deal. It could all be back there within just the next few weeks, for all I know! Since I am of a belief we’re about to turn, I’ll just sit tight, and wait for it. It’s right out there in front of us… I’m quite confident of that.
O, and by the way, don’t anyone think I did not notice that today, for all those Japanese Candlestick fans, was a bearish engulfing pattern. That’s supposedly not a good thing… we’ll see how that works out, too!
It’s only 9:38 p.m. EST, and the futures overseas are trading up, but not by any appreciable amount. More in the morning.
At 6:40 a.m. EST… futures are off again this morning, but only fractionally… not like another rout, or anything. All that is needed is the trigger to set things off, to commence the rally that the technical indicators say should be readily at hand now.
May you have all good investing success!
Harold F Crowell