Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing

No Man’s Land

Yeah, we’re betwixt and between. It’s not a good place to be. The technicals are not well. There was some decline yesterday. The pre-openers are slightly down this morning as of 6:45 a.m. EST.

I’m going to chart the S&P 500 in relation to its own 50 and 200 day moving averages to get a better view of just where things presently stand, and add that take….

The S&P 500 has fulfilled all 5 of the necessary prerequisites to have signalled a Bear Market. Its price has fallen thru its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 50-day moving average has turned down and has pierced the 200-day moving average in what is called a ‘Death Cross’. And, finally, the 200-day moving average has also turned down. The only thing not accomplished yet is for the price of the 500 to rise to a place where it is able to actually ‘kiss’ its own downward trending 200-day moving average line, which typically serves as a good confirmation, if it should fall hard and fast from there, that the Bear is here.

There are two camps on the topic. One says this is a Bear, and the other says that it looks just like 20011 all over again, when a whole new upside leg to the Bull Market erupted the first business day of 2012. I’m presently in that second camp. As a long-term, buy-to-hold type of an investor in the very safest-dividend growing stocks, this is a heads I win, tails I win even better scenario. I either get to accumulate shares at good prices when the technicals say that risk is largely wrung out, or I may get to acquire more shares at truly great prices, should this be a bear that cuts prices about in half again, as it did the last two bear markets. While we’re betwixt and between, it’s a No Man’s Land, and we just watch and wait.

Make it a great day!

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell


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