Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Income, Stock Market Investing, Stock Market Timing

So Close! Yet, So Far?

Re-read my June 30 post. Or, just let me copy a substantial part of it:

“[I]t’s all about Greece and the entire Euro and EU. If the bad news is driving markets down, then any less bad news about there being some kind of a potential resolution to the Greek mess is going to immediately result in a relief rally!

So, the very best that we can hope for is that things continue just long enough to get all the technicals that I care about down to some place where I would think that market risk has been wrung out… and that may, or it certainly may not, happen; depending about who caves first and makes everything all better again… or, at the very least, less bad.

Here’s what we want to hope for: We really could use a couple or three weeks of some terribly bad market psychology, where everyone gets down on stocks and sells… at least all those who would be willing to. If this Greece thing drags on, and real calamity does ensue, we’re going to get a great opportunity.”  So said I Tuesday, June 30.

So, what happened yesterday? We were only just beginning to get to that place where I would have announced that it was time to sit up, pay close attention, and begin to prepare your shopping list, as we were right on the verge of entering into a true “low-risk market entry opportunity.” I even took the numbers from about 10:45 am and plugged those into my timing program, as if they were the day’s end numbers… and they were nearly all beginning to look interesting, but none had gotten to where they would have signaled.

Why the intra-day reversal and the rocket up on volume? I said… “any less bad news.” I said… “depending on who caves first.” Well, it seems that Merkel of Germany spoke in such a way as to appear to have caved, giving the Greek tragedy some fresh glimmer of hope about 10:30 am EST, and off to the races it went!

Was that the bottom? It didn’t truly qualify by that timing work I have employed for decades. And, of course, time will tell. Then, there’s this, too… it’s not yet 7:30 am EST Wednesday as I am writing, and the pre-market futures trading overseas is presently indicating a 1/2 of 1% reversal back down. Let us all hope it opens that way, and follows through, as that would be the beginning of things starting to get interesting! Stay tuned, as it would seem that we are getting so close, yet still so far away!

Here’s to your successful investing!
Harold F Crowell


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